Buck and Porter discuss the overreaching power of the Department of Justice in the current Paul Manafort investigation, how the State of California is making another epic economic blunder mandating solar energy for new homes, and why the recent move in oil over $70 has nothing at all to do with Iran.
Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter joins Porter and Buck to talk about the most important chart in the markets, an economic signal from the St. Louis Fed you should be watching every Thursday, and where you should be on US equities. Porter asks Dennis about his thoughts on
Listeners have questions, and Porter has answers. He tells you the easiest way to invest in safe government bonds, the locations of his favorite deep-sea fishing spots, and the role precious metals like gold play in the inflation vs. deflation debate.
Announcer: Broadcasting from Baltimore, Maryland
Buck Sexton: Hey, everybody. Welcome to another hour of the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm nationally syndicated radio host Buck Sexton, also a political analyst and aspiring
Porter Stansberry: Hi, everybody. Glad to be here.
Buck Sexton: Joining us this week will be Dennis Gartman, editor
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You can access everything you need to benefit from the Stansberry Investor Hour. All right. Big P is here in the house. Let's get started.
Porter Stansberry: Buck, have you seen the latest nonsense in California?
Buck Sexton: No, but the nonsense keeps getting crazier and crazier. You know, they just realized recently that paper bags – true story – worse for the environment than plastic bags.
Porter Stansberry: How's that possible?
Buck Sexton: Paper bags kill trees and are a lot heavier than plastic bags so the transport costs of the paper bags are considerably higher. Oh, and by the way, you can reuse a plastic bag. That paper bag gets a little tear in it? Guess what? You need to cut down another tree.
Porter Stansberry: Oh, boy.
Buck Sexton: Yeah.
Porter Stansberry: You do know that trees grow back.
Buck Sexton: Porter, don't tell them this. This is going to upset people.
Porter Stansberry: [Laughs]
Buck Sexton: You're going to be melting snowflakes like it's out on the beach.
Porter Stansberry: It doesn't make any sense to me that paper bags are worse for the environment than plastic bags, but I've been fooled before.
Buck Sexton: Re –
Porter Stansberry: That sounds like some craziness.
Buck Sexton: Recycling is actually – it's not clear that that's good for the environment based on all the –
Porter Stansberry: Oh, I know that's not good for the environment.
Buck Sexton: Yeah.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah.
Buck Sexton: $200,000? $180,000?
Porter Stansberry: I was going to say $150,000, $200,000, something like that.
Buck Sexton: Oh, OK.
Porter Stansberry: California's probably $250,000.
Buck Sexton: Yeah.
Porter Stansberry: I mean, these are not minor costs.
Buck Sexton: That's a huge cost.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah.
Buck Sexton: I can't afford that cost.
Porter Stansberry: It's not up to the person buying the house. It's up to the state.
Buck Sexton: But are they going to try to socialize the cost by putting in incentives for the people that have the solar?
Porter Stansberry: Well, here's the fun part of all that, right? The people only use power in their homes when they get home from work and at night. There's no sun at night. You can't use your solar panels at night.
Buck Sexton: How good are they at storing the charge? I'm assuming not great.
Porter Stansberry: Oh, that's extra. You have to buy a big battery wall and guess who sells that to you? You'll never guess.
Buck Sexton: The people that make the solar panels?
Porter Stansberry: Tesla.
Buck Sexton: Oh.
Porter Stansberry: Yes, the great state subsidy known as Tesla. So enjoy California, have fun out there. Meanwhile, you guys do know that, like, legions of people leave California every day because of taxes and government regulation.
Buck Sexton: Yeah, heading to Nevada and Texas.
Porter Stansberry: Nevada and Texas.
Buck Sexton: A lot of that.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah.
Buck Sexton: And I would've thought maybe Hawaii until – have you seen the magma, the liquid, hot magma that is actually consuming homes and vehicles –
Porter Stansberry: Hang on. Hang on a second. There's a volcano on Hawaii?
Buck Sexton: [Laughs]
Porter Stansberry: I had no idea. How did that island get in the middle of the Pacific Ocean? Oh, yeah. It's on a volcanic vent. Shocker. Sometimes volcanoes explode. Have you seen the volcanoes exploding in Iceland? Have you seen the volcanoes exploding in Argentina? I have. It's interrupted my travel plans twice.
Buck Sexton: But if people haven't actually seen the footage, by the way – 'cause I was on the Big Island in Hawaii when I was a teenager and I remember being all excited because, you know, I had seen James Bond movies and I figured I'm going to get – 'cause they said, "Do you want to go for a hike and see the volcano?" And it's active lava was what I was told, so I'm all psyched. I'm thinking I'm going to get up to the edge like the guy in Lord of the Rings and it's going to be like, you know –
Porter Stansberry: Yeah.
Buck Sexton: No. You get about a half a mile away and you can see like a little spout that kind of flickers red and then there's like steam that comes up from the ocean. They're like, "Look at the volcano." I'm like, this isn't what I signed up for. I was 14 at the time. I still knew it sucked. The stuff you're seeing right now, I was like, that's seeing the volcano. I mean, they've got lava flows taking down houses.
Porter Stansberry: Cool.
You have to read, Buck, the Wall Street Journal article from last weekend about how major colleges, including Hopkins right here in Baltimore, are doing research with LSD as a treatment for profound anxiety, profound depression, and profound OCD, people who are like caught in loops.
Buck Sexton: They're doing it with PTSD too, by the way.
Porter Stansberry: PTSD too, yeah. And it was a really cool thing that the analogy that they gave was that your brain can't process – like OCD people are stuck in a loop, anxiety people are stuck in a – thinking about the same fear, and depression people are stuck in that state of mourning or grief and they can't get out of it, the brains can get out of it.
So what they do is they take – the LSD causes your brain to enter a completely calm mental state. It's kind of like – I used to mow grass when I was a kid for money, and I loved mowing
It happens to me if I take
Buck Sexton: It's called rumination in OCD.
Porter Stansberry: Right, the rumination.
So people who had severe depression went for major surgery for something else, and after they were in that deep
Buck Sexton: I'm fond of reminding friends – and it's something I talk about on radio, which hopefully some of the folks here listening will actually download my radio show at some point, which is available on iTunes – the Buck Sexton Show – but I read a book called Pandemic and it's all about the worst of diseases. But one of the things that
Porter Stansberry: Bacteria, that's right.
Buck Sexton: And they'd said, "No, no, no, no. That's nonsense. It's bad smells." I mean we didn't understand micro –
Porter Stansberry: We couldn't see bacteria.
Buck Sexton: We couldn't see bacteria. Of course, then the microscope came along, but there were even times before the rise of modern medicine when some forward thinker would come along and, of course, the echo chamber shot him down and said, "No –"
This is true of microscopes, by the way, as well. This was done actually about 100, 150 years before it became
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. I wonder how many things we still do that are like that.
Buck Sexton: Well there's a lot. I mean when you look –
Porter Stansberry: I'm sure there's a lot.
Buck Sexton: When you look at our understanding of brain chemistry, digestion–
Porter Stansberry: Very, very little.
Buck Sexton: – very rudimentary actually.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, yeah.
Buck Sexton: There's a reason why when people are dying from c.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, one of the flesh-eating disease things.
Buck Sexton: Which seems like a bigger disease – no, that's MRSA.
Porter Stansberry: MRSA.
Buck Sexton: C. difficile is like a really –
Porter Stansberry: Inside you.
Buck Sexton: – antibiotic-resistant – exactly.
Porter Stansberry: Gotcha.
Buck Sexton: Antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
Porter Stansberry: Sepsis.
Buck Sexton: MRSA is like eats your arm off and everything else. But c. diff and those kinds of infections, hospital-borne infections, kill 80,000 to 100,000 people a year. It's actually really big.
Porter Stansberry: That's why you don't want to go to the hospital.
Buck Sexton: You do not want to go to the hospital. It's a really big mortality issue and they can't figure out any antibiotics to treat it. You know what one of the most effective recent treatments they've found is? This is a true story.
Porter Stansberry: Clorox.
Buck Sexton: No, they – well, yes. I mean to actually make things clean so you don't get infected. But if you get infected they essentially give you – and this is gross, I know we're on a podcast – but they give you human waste and they put it inside you. They actually implant someone else's waste inside your bowel.
Porter Stansberry: To trigger your immune system.
Buck Sexton: To get your immune system – and they don't know why, but it literally saves people's lives.
Porter Stansberry: Huh, yeah.
Buck Sexton: It's a true story. They give you –
Porter Stansberry: If you want to live you have to eat shit.
Buck Sexton: It's like a poop popsicle –
Porter Stansberry: [Laughs]
Buck Sexton: And it saves lives and they can't even explain it. They just know that it's rebalancing of the immune system and the bacteria.
Porter Stansberry: Hey, have you guys seen that ad for the company that does your colon
Buck Sexton: This is what they make you do if you go to a tropical climate and you get really sick. You know that. I mean that's how they –
Porter Stansberry: How much does the poop box opener pay? I'm here to apply for a job. [Laughs]
Buck Sexton: We don't even have Jammer in the room and this podcast may be the most off the rails it has ever gotten right now.
Porter Stansberry: I just wonder like, who wakes up and goes, "You know what? Today I'm going to take that first step forward in my career. [Laughs] I'm going to go be a poop box opener." [Laughs] Hey, we all have to start somewhere. My first job at – my first real job at 14 – I mean I did a little stuff on the side for a guy named Ernie at his warehouse, but this was like a real Social Security number paying job: hosing out a dog kennel. So every morning I got up at 5, I'd hose out all the dog kennels, feed
Buck Sexton: You ready for the deep state now, by the way?
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, let's –
Buck Sexton: You ready to clean it up in here a little bit?
Porter Stansberry: Now that we're sort of in it, knee-deep in it –
Buck Sexton: Yeah, we're –
Porter Stansberry: – let's just –
Buck Sexton: It's already swampy in here. There's methane aplenty so let's get into the D.C. swamp.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, tell us the latest on the crooked FBI and the crazy president. Let's –
Buck Sexton: FBI – if FBI was a stock I wouldn't just say sell, I would say short. FBI's having a rough go right now. DOJ, too. You know,
And I think he's facing – I'm not exaggerating, but it's something in the neighborhood of 250 to 300 years in prison based on all the wire fraud. Now he's not going to get that, but the point is – I mean this is starting to feel like
Porter Stansberry: Well he got Trump elected, so he deserves no rights.
Buck Sexton: That's right. They cannot destroy him enough.
Porter Stansberry: I mean, that's right.
Buck Sexton: It's almost like in North Korea, they don't just punish you. They have multigenerational imprisonment, so like your kids and your kids' kids also get to go to the prison camp.
Porter Stansberry: Yes.
Buck Sexton: That's what they want for Manafort. But what this Judge Ellis – super sharp guy, by the way, very well respected by friends of mine who actually work on the federal prosecutorial side – he looks at this thing and he's got these federal prosecutors, the Special Counsel, right, the guys, and they go before him. I read the whole thing over the weekend, by the way, the whole court transcript. And the judge says, "Let me just understand this. You guys are bringing this huge indictment against Paul Manafort. There's nothing about Russia or collusion or the election or anything here, so why are you guys doing this? Why isn't the Eastern District, the usual federal court involved in this?"
And they said, "Well, you know, it was a previous investigation, we picked up on it, and technically it's within our mandate," and he kind of pushes a little more, and then he goes, "Well, you know, actually if you look at your mandate as written by Rosenstein, the acting – or the Deputy Attorney General who steps in for Jeff Sessions, this really isn't in your mandate, actually. This is beyond your mandate." And then their response is, "Well, but our mandate is pretty much whatever we say it is because that letter, one, is not fully disclosed to the public." So the letter that lays out what the Special Counsel's allowed to look at is in part redacted. This –
Porter Stansberry: Why?
Buck Sexton: Because they say that there's sensitive information involved. This –
Porter Stansberry: How could there be?
Buck Sexton: Exactly. The judge sits there, he goes, "Look, buddy. I deal with – you know, this is federal court. We deal with espionage cases, we deal with sensitive stuff all the time."
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. I'm a federal judge.
Buck Sexton: That's right. I'm a federal
Porter Stansberry: [Laughs]
Buck Sexton: And this judge is, like, start – he literally says, "Come on" to them. He's like, "You guys have to be kidding." And then they say, "Yeah, well – but not only are we not going to show you what's in the Special Counsel order describing the parameters of our investigation, what's in the Special Counsel order describing the parameters of the investigation – into Trump and Manafort and all this – is irrelevant because we're not really bound by it because it's just our own regulation anyway." So this is the DOJ coming along saying that the Special Counsel, the stuff we've told you isn't complete, isn't true, and it wouldn't matter anyway because our powers are whatever we say they are. That's what they said. I mean people who were paying attention were like, "Whoa, this is pretty sketchy stuff." That's what's going on.
Porter Stansberry: So they're not saying – the judge isn't saying that Manafort didn't commit any crimes.
Buck Sexton: Oh no, not at all.
Porter Stansberry: We aren't even there yet. He's saying, "You don't have standing in this court because you're not the Eastern prosecutor for whatever."
Buck Sexton: Eastern District of Virginia.
Porter Stansberry: Right.
Buck Sexton: What he says effectively – he actually says –
Porter Stansberry: Why are you in my court?
Buck Sexton: In the court transcript – can we just all be honest? You guys are here to crush this guy to turn him against Trump, right? I'm the
Porter Stansberry: The question I wanted to know – and I don't expect you'll know off the top of your head – but the question I'd like to have answered is, where are the people that this guy Manafort defrauded?
Buck Sexton: It's the federal government. He didn't pay taxes.
Porter Stansberry: Oh.
Buck Sexton: That's it.
Porter Stansberry: OK.
Buck Sexton: Yeah. They're just saying it's like tax fraud, tax evasion, that kind of stuff.
Porter Stansberry: OK.
Buck Sexton: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Porter Stansberry: So it's a tax case.
Buck Sexton: Yeah, it's a tax case.
Porter Stansberry: Oh.
Buck Sexton: And all the wire fraud, all that stuff. Essentially, he was getting paid for – this is what they say, right, none of it proven yet – alleged – they say he was getting paid for overseas work with some Ukrainian oligarchs and some Russians maybe thrown in there, and was essentially hiding assets and lying about stuff.
Porter Stansberry: Doing the regular thing.
Buck Sexton: Doing what people do that aren't paying their taxes.
Porter Stansberry: Right. Oh, I got paid that money overseas, I don't have to report it, I can hide it.
Buck Sexton: That's right.
Porter Stansberry: I'll run it through a Swiss bank to a Singapore bank to a Hong Kong bank, blah, blah, blah.
Buck Sexton: But this federal judge is saying so –
Porter Stansberry: And to Panama.
Buck Sexton: – why is a Special Counsel with at least a $10 million budget handling a case that, based on the charges shown, has absolutely nothing to do with the mandate of the Special Counsel? And the Special Counsel's response is, "We don't have to tell you –" although they will have to actually tell this judge at some point, the judge was having none of it –
Porter Stansberry: Right. The answer is we want to crush this guy till he rolls over and tells us whatever we want him to say about Trump.
Buck Sexton: And what's so funny is that the prosecutors – even though everyone knows – you know, I know, the judge knows – prosecutors don't want to say that. They're like, "Well, it's under our mandate and, you know, we're investigating here and there."
Porter Stansberry: I think that's one of the fundamental gross miscarriages of justice in the United States currently, that people who are convicted felons are routinely allowed to give testimony against other people to lessen their sentences.
Buck Sexton: Yeah, they – instead of testifying –
Porter Stansberry: It's ridiculous.
Buck Sexton: – they call it
Porter Stansberry: That's ridiculous. I mean that should never be allowed.
Buck Sexton: They can vacate it, yeah.
Porter Stansberry: – it's not a valid contract. I was forced to sign it." Well meanwhile, the federal government, the people who you're supposed to be able to trust – ha, ha, that's a laugh – they use compelled testimony all the time and it's bizarre that juries just don't completely ignore it.
Buck Sexton: Ninety-seven percent of
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, I mean you cheat on your taxes, pay a fine. What's the big deal?
Buck Sexton: Right. Well, by the way, in Europe that's actually what would happen.
Porter Stansberry: Well it's –
Buck Sexton: In this country –
Porter Stansberry: – supposed to be a civil society.
Buck Sexton: In this
Porter Stansberry: That's ridiculous.
Buck Sexton: – if you fight it. If you take their deal, you know, it's probably two or three years but you're a convicted felon.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. Listen, I – by the way, I pay my taxes and I think everybody should pay their taxes. I can't believe how many subscribers have come to me that are like, "Oh yeah, you pay your taxes." I'm like, yeah, I pay every freaking penny and I –" and they're like, "You've got all those overseas subscribers." I'm like, "Yeah, and they pay in dollars and here's our bank account," you know?
Yeah. And I'm like, do you think I could say the [bleep] I say about our government all the time if I wasn't paying my taxes? Guess who gets audited every time? That'd be this guy right here, the crazy guy who said, "You'll never believe me but GM's going to go broke."
Buck Sexton: If I could – but I can't and wouldn't because it'd be betraying confidences, but if people knew the folks that I know who are critical of government, who are right of center, who
Porter Stansberry: No.
Buck Sexton: It's just, everyone who gets involved with it, once they're past
Porter Stansberry: No.
Buck Sexton: That's the problem.
Porter Stansberry: I don't want to talk about it.
Buck Sexton: 'Cause they've been – well, exactly. But I know people –
Porter Stansberry: But I pay my taxes.
Buck Sexton: Yeah, but they paid their taxes but they'll be hounded for five or 10 years in a row.
Porter Stansberry: That's crazy.
Buck Sexton: And these are high earners whose names everybody listening to this would know.
Porter Stansberry: It's crazy.
Buck Sexton: Yeah, it's insane.
Porter Stansberry: It's crazy. So yeah, you – I mean someone in my position, there's no way – I mean
Buck Sexton: Jail sucks.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. So I was always on that course anyways. But the times I've been investigated by civil authorities for tax issues, the guys are always just flabbergasted, and they're like, "OK, Mr. Stansberry. We know you have other bank accounts, and if you don't tell us where they are we're going to find them, and when we find them we're going to put you in jail," and I'm like, I've had the same bank account – I don't want to name the bank because I don't have to have people listening to this podcast go hack my bank account – I've had the same bank account that I opened in college in 1994, the same exact account at the same bank, and every penny I've ever earned has been deposited into that account. You can track every dollar. And the guys are like, "We know you're lying."
I'm like, "
Buck Sexton: Spoken like a true Bilderberg here, by the way.
Porter Stansberry: Yes, yes.
Buck Sexton: [Laughs]
Porter Stansberry: I don't have offshore accounts. Maybe I should, but I don't. I have
Buck Sexton: Ah. Just make sure there's some room on one of the tiny islands off New Zealand for Buck over here.
Porter Stansberry: I might or I might not have offshore self-storage units that may or may not have gold in it, but I haven't broken any laws.
Buck Sexton: Before, by the way, we move on to our wonderful guest, who actually has some important
Porter Stansberry: Sorry. We don't have to –
Buck Sexton: – you're going to discuss with him – can I give you one more deep state thing?
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, yeah.
Buck Sexton: So I wrote about this on TheHill.com for those who want to see it today, so it's getting some attention. So
Porter Stansberry: He of the golden chin.
Buck Sexton: Mm-hmm. He of the marrying wealthy women twice. He's got quite a lucky streak going there. He is very good at finding large fortunes made by other men and attaching himself to the women who at least got half.
Porter Stansberry: He might have the world's most valuable penis.
Buck Sexton: [Laughs] Oh, god. Now I'm in trouble just for laughing.
Porter Stansberry: [Laughs]
Buck Sexton: Anyway, so Kerry is a –
Porter Stansberry: By the way – I'm sorry – are we so far down the whole "me too" movement that you can't even just tell an off-color joke? I didn't say grab him by the penis? I said he might have the world's most valuable penis. He might! I don't know. Just seems like he's in the running, right? It was Teresa Heinz, right? Do you know who the other one was?
Buck Sexton: No.
Porter Stansberry: I know Teresa Heinz was one of them.
Buck Sexton: Yeah, the first one was very wealthy too, though.
Porter Stansberry: I don't know who the first one was.
Buck Sexton: Yeah, the first one was –
Porter Stansberry: And he's also the swift boat guy, right?
Buck Sexton: He was the swift boat guy.
Porter Stansberry: I have no idea what the swift boat thing was all about but I did hang out for a hunting season with Boone Pickens at his ranch – which is a great story, I love telling it because it's really an awesome thing. I love hunting with Boone because the weather was a little bad. He's like, "You guys want to go to Aspen?" I'm like, "Sure, yeah." He's like, "All right, fire the jet." So we went to Aspen for lunch. Anyways, Boone hated this guy and I never could understand why. Maybe someone can tell us. Let us know on the feedback. Feedback at…
Buck Sexton: InvestorHour.com.
Porter Stansberry: – InvestorHour.com.
Buck Sexton: That's what I'm here for.
Porter Stansberry: I don't know where we were. I got lost.
Buck Sexton: Kerry, I was telling you about Kerry.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. Sorry, let's go on to your story.
Buck Sexton: I'll make this quick and then – because we've obviously got the one and only Dennis Gartman with us and he's going to be telling us cool things about actually how to make money, which I know is what you guys do here.
Porter Stansberry: And by the way, Dennis Gartman does not normally give any kind of direct investing advice on interviews, but he will give you three stocks to buy.
Buck Sexton: That's what we call a teaser in the business. Now, you got Kerry out there. He – the Iran deal, which we're also going to discuss a bit more as it affects –
Porter Stansberry: He of the golden phallus.
Buck Sexton: [Laughs] As the Iran deal coming up, we're going to talk about oil, but before that –
Porter Stansberry: Can we just call – instead of calling him John Kerry can we just call him… [Laughs]
Buck Sexton: He's really chairman – Big P is abusing chairman prerogative right now, all right?
Porter Stansberry: Can we call him the golden phallus?
Buck Sexton: You can call him whatever you want,
Porter Stansberry: You're not going to call him the golden phallus?
Buck Sexton: – could retire tomorrow. No.
Porter Stansberry: [Laughs]
Buck Sexton: Buck's got bills to pay. I can't talk about any of this stuff.
Porter Stansberry: OK. All right.
Buck Sexton: So anyway, Kerry is running around and he is holding meetings with – including the Iranian foreign minister. He's the former secretary of state. He is trying to actively work against the Trump administration's pressure campaign on Iran with the deal.
Porter Stansberry: Doesn't that sound like treason?
Buck Sexton: This is a problem for a number of reasons. Now look, he has a first amendment right as a citizen to bring up – but he's a former secretary of state, he's meeting directly with the other side of the table, who in this case is an enemy state. He's also been on the phone with and meeting some of our allies, including the German president and –
Porter Stansberry: He's been meddling.
Buck Sexton: He has been meddling big time. Now that's annoying and bad for a number of reasons. On top of that though there is this little thing called the Logan Act. It's a law from 1799. Nobody's ever been prosecuted under it and people like to bring it up as a kind of
Porter Stansberry: When he was the guy who'd been elected to be the next –
Buck Sexton: To be the national security advisor, that's right.
Porter Stansberry: Right. So he's doing his job a couple months early –
Buck Sexton: That's right.
Porter Stansberry: – and she threatens him with a Logan Action.
Buck Sexton: She threatened the Logan Act and send the FBI –
Porter Stansberry: And now you've got –
Buck Sexton: – and he's been prosecuted and pleaded guilty to a felony because of it. It was
Porter Stansberry: I don't understand.
Buck Sexton: What am I missing?
Porter Stansberry: I mean I don't quite get it. It seems like there's sort of an unspoken civil war happening in our government where all the forces on the left are fighting tooth and nail with every available resource, all the people on the right, and vice versa.
Buck Sexton: Yeah.
Porter Stansberry: So why wouldn't – now that Trump's in power, why wouldn't he go after the golden phallus?
Buck Sexton: Because the DOJ is the deep
Porter Stansberry: Oh, the DOJ is the deep state.
Buck Sexton: Yeah.
Porter Stansberry: So they're the people fighting Trump as well.
Buck Sexton: They're fighting Trump as well.
Porter Stansberry: They're aligned with the
Buck Sexton: Now it's just the top tier, the top level, but there are leftovers – a lot of them from the Obama administration.
Porter Stansberry: But doesn't – isn't the
Buck Sexton: He is.
Porter Stansberry: So why doesn't he just go in there and clean house, fire them all?
Buck Sexton: This is how crazy the world is. There's now a widespread I wouldn't say misconception, but a belief out there that a subordinate officer of the federal government, in this
Porter Stansberry: No way, no way. Nobody gets to withhold information from Congress. They –
Buck Sexton: They think they can.
Porter Stansberry: Right.
Buck Sexton: They're trying.
Porter Stansberry: They make the laws. They're our elected representatives.
Buck Sexton: The no way is the appropriate response to this, but unfortunately that's how bad things have gotten.
Porter Stansberry: I kind of feel like the DOJ is kind of like the – have you ever seen like the new guy at the first family Thanksgiving who's taking a little too much liberties? You know what I mean? Like he's way overestimating his status in the situation.
Buck Sexton: I think I get it.
Porter Stansberry: And everyone's kind of humoring him at dinner because they don't quite know what to do with him, but he's about to get shut down by the one guy who's a lawyer at the table who gets sick of [bleep]. He's about to embarrass him in front of everybody. I think that's what's going to happen.
Buck Sexton: They're getting a slap-down here. There is going to be a reckoning for the DOJ. Now the issue right now is there's a race – and then I think we should move to Dennis because he's got important things to say about making money – but the DOJ is trying to finish off Trump right now before we can get a full accounting of what actually went on. Because if they can get the report out there that Trump obstructed justice, for example, ahead of us finding out what really went on during this period that we're all looking at, you know, they're on offense. If Trump and the people around him are able to get the information out about all the leaks and all the machinations and stuff, that's where they've overestimated their hand, so we'll see.
Porter Stansberry: Well it seems like they've already
Buck Sexton: He lied three times under oath. Michael Flynn maybe lied one time. It's actually in dispute right now whether or not the FBI believed he lied, and he has had to plead guilty – pleaded guilty to a felony.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah.
Buck Sexton: What is the difference between these two people? One is liked by the deep state Democrats, the other is not.
Porter Stansberry: Interesting. Wow.
Buck Sexton: Yeah. So there we go, some deep state, yeah. It got swampy up in here. You want to get to our buddy Dennis, thought?
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, let's try to move out of the swamp and the golden phallus and let's move into the, you know, big green dollar sign.
Buck Sexton: Dennis Gartman is with us now. Dennis is the editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, a daily publication focused on global markets, addressing political economic and technical trends. Dennis's subscribers include leading banks, brokerage firms, hedge funds, and commodity trading firms around the world. Dennis last appeared on the Stansberry Investor Hour back in September on Episode 16. We're glad to have him back to see what he's up to now and how things have changed in the markets since his last visit. Please welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour Mr. Dennis Gartman.
Dennis Gartman: Thanks for having me on. You guys scraped the bottom of the barrel and there I was, so thanks for having me.
Porter Stansberry: Dennis, that's ridiculous. You're one of the absolute all-stars in this business. It's fantastic to speak with you. You cover all markets all around the world all the time. Don't you do something crazy like get up at 1 in the morning and write your letter until 5 a.m. or something like that?
Dennis Gartman: That's exactly what I do. The alarm goes off at 1:05, I'm downstairs in the office by 1:08, and I'm writing viciously until 5 a.m. I try to get out somewhere between 5:00 to 5:15 so that people in Europe get it around 10 in the morning, maybe 11 if you're in France or Germany, that the clientele over in the Far East gets it before they leave for the evening at 5:00 in Hong Kong, or before their night traders come in, and obviously long before Americans and Canadian readers get in, so it's a finite time. I've been doing it for, what, 35 years now, and until three weeks ago I'd never missed a day.
Porter Stansberry: Well what happened three weeks ago?
Dennis Gartman: Oh, kidney stones.
Porter Stansberry: [Laughs]
Dennis Gartman: Don't get them. Avoid them if you can.
Porter Stansberry: Age; it catches all of us.
Dennis Gartman: Age. Age – as a friend of mine said, "Growing old is not for sissies."
Porter Stansberry: Oh. Well, Dennis, I don't know whether this is a sign of your incredible fame or it's a sign of the top of a market, but I do want to relate something that happened to me last week in New York City. I was in New York for some business purposes, which are not that important and I don't need to go into, but I had several meetings to get to so I had a car and a driver that someone had set up for me and my staff. This is not unusual, I don't think I'm a bigwig, but I had to get to like five different places that day so I had a car and driver for the day. My driver would not stop talking about you, and he –
Dennis Gartman: Oh, you're kidding.
Porter Stansberry: No, I'm not. He brought you up – not me – and then I told him that I would be having a conversation with you, you know, next week – this was last week – and he freaked out and he spent the entire rest of our time together, which in city traffic we spent probably two hours together that day, telling me everything that you have done wrong and right for the last five years, and this –
Dennis Gartman: Oh my lord.
Porter Stansberry: –
Dennis Gartman: Probably a sign of the top.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, your reach is now all the way into drivers in the city, so just so you know.
Dennis Gartman: I should've told you that I knew – I tracked you down, found out who your driver was going to be and bribed him, but we'll let that go for another time.
Porter Stansberry: All right. Let's get to something that hopefully, Buck, our subscribers will find more useful.
Dennis Gartman: I think at this point – I was quite bearish of stocks. Let's not mince words. And I'm not bearish of stocks at this point. I'm neutral of U.S. stocks. I'm bullish of the stock markets of countries that are still expanding or still expansionary in their monetary policies, and so I think that one should be bullish – if one's going to be bullish, one should be bullish of Europe, one should be bullish of Japan, where the monetary authorities are still clearly experimenting with QE, but one should probably be neutral of U.S. equities. I'm not bearish of U.S. equities at this point. We've had a nice move to the downside.
Perhaps I got a little too excited on the downside, waited a little too long to say I'm no longer bearish, but to be quite blunt, I'm no longer bearish. Doesn't mean I'm going to rush out and buy stocks but it does mean, again, I'd rather own the stocks of Europe, I'd rather own stocks in Japan where the monetary authorities are still expansionary. We're not – we've become contractionary. The adjusted monetary base – if I could only choose one monetary aggregate to watch, it's the adjusted monetary base announced on Thursday by the Fed St. Louis. It has actually been falling now for almost two years.
Interest rates have been rising now for almost two years. So one should be neutral of U.S. stocks. The economy's doing quite well. As my friend Brian Wesbury says, "This is a plowhorse economy, not a racehorse economy," and it keeps plowing forward. So one doesn't need to be bearish. I think neutrality on the U.S. stocks is probably the proper place to be.
Porter Stansberry: That was a great answer, thank you. Comprehensive. The second question I've been dying to ask you about – and I'm going to ask this question first but I want to come back to the U.S. economy and particularly the credit markets in a minute, but I – but before I can get to that I want to just make sure I get my two hot questions in. And my second question is, you wrote about a loss that you took in a blockchain company, and I don't really care about the details of that investment – that's gotten plenty of play and I don't really care about that. What
Dennis Gartman: First of all, I think blockchain is going to change everything that we trade, whether it's equities, whether it's debt, whether it's fresh fruit, whether it's trains, whether it's trucks, whether it's pipelines of gasoline. The blockchain is an astonishing piece of technology that needs to be divorced from bitcoin. The public seems to think of bitcoin and blockchain as being synonymous. They shouldn't be. And so I'm terribly bullish on the future of blockchain and how it will make and simplify almost everything. Case in point: When you buy a mortgage you have to have mortgage insurance, you have to have somebody do a history, a check on the –
I would not want to be in the business of being a mortgage insurer or doing investigations on whether a mortgage is clear and clean or not. That business is going to be disrupted and destroyed.
Porter Stansberry: I feel like a copycat. That's the exact same rationale that I have been espousing for many, many months and it gives me pleasure to see someone as intelligent and experienced as you have the same opinion. Dennis, I would describe what you said earlier about equities as being constructive. You're constructive on equities, particularly global stocks. But the question I have for you really is about the U.S. equity market and the U.S. credit cycle, and just give me a little bit of rope so I can hang myself here. In my opinion, we have not had normal classical economics in our country for almost a decade, and by that what I really mean is the interest rates have been so manipulated and the money supply has been so manipulated and the banking systems have been so manipulated that lots of economic actors in the United States have been paid a lot of money to do things that are not rational.
And now with the 10-year rate back around 3%, we are now returning to what I would call classical normal economics where when people do the wrong things they will not be rewarded, they will be punished, and those punishments are beginning to materialize. Witness the unbelievably quick resolution and liquidation at Toys "R" Us. Those bonds were trading at par a year ago and now they are completely wiped out. I think the recovery was something like 10 or 12 cents on the dollar. And –
Dennis Gartman: Yeah, they were trading at 75 only about two months ago.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. So what I see and what I expect to happen is this tsunami of consequences, because that's how economics and that's how capitalism is supposed to work. It's supposed to be that if you don't do a good enough job you fail. So there are a whole lot of banks and brokers that should've gone out of business. There are a whole lot of real estate developers that should've gone out of business. There's a whole lot of corporate debt out there, Dennis, as you well know, that cannot be financed.
The numbers I've seen suggest that something around 15% of the Fortune 1500, the S&P 1500, can't afford the interest service on their existing outstanding bonds. So how do you – how can you – if you agree with any of those things – or maybe you don't – but how would you marry that view of the credit cycle with being constructive
Dennis Gartman: Prayer will help.
Prayer will go a long way. I couldn't disagree with anything that you said. Clearly, the monetary authorities – well, let's back up. I think that Bernanke did exactly the right thing at exactly the right time, becoming manifestly, miraculously, overtly stimulative in expanding the adjusted monetary base when he should have in the depths of the recession in 2007 and 2009. He was the adult in the room and he did what he needed to do and I think he should be applauded for that. Now did the monetary authorities overstay their welcome? Almost certainly.
Should quantitative easing have ended by 2011 or maybe 2012? Almost certainly it should have. It has finally ended – it ended sometime in 2016 because the adjusted base has been falling since then – but it's not been falling dramatically. And yes, interest rates are way too low, have been held too low, and perhaps it's just my
Porter Stansberry: Ouch.
Buck Sexton: – as overnight Fed funds went to 20.
People have recognized that fact yet but they should, and rates are going to go up. Will there be some companies that do indeed find it impossible to roll over their debt? No question. Was the bankruptcy that you brought up of Toys "R" Us exemplary of what's going to happen in the future? Of
I think that the monetary authorities, having learned the lesson of 2007, 2008, and 2009, will err very quickly if they see that things have gone awry, that the economy has turned lower, that unemployment gets back to 5, 5.5%, which I don't think that it shall in the next year or so, but let's say that it did, the monetary authorities will be very swift at becoming expansionary once again. But they are contractionary at this point and I think that is exactly what they should be doing. So will there be bankruptcies in the future? Of
As you said, there's too much illogic in the market, but as my friend Gary Shilling once said, and I think
Porter Stansberry: That's right.
Dennis Gartman: My corollary to that is the market will return to rationality the moment you have been rendered insolvent.
Porter Stansberry: [Laughs] That's true, too. One point I would make to counter my own argument is if Amazon adds more in market cap than the value of all of the bankrupt companies combined, then the stock averages will keep going higher. In other words, you could have an economy – and capitalism is supposed to work this way – where the winners get wealthier and the losers go broke, and so just because you have even 15% of companies failing would not necessarily mean you have to have a bear market. So I just think it's a –
Dennis Gartman: That's exactly correct.
Porter Stansberry: Yep. It's just a very interesting dichotomy where you're going to have –we haven't had a return to real capitalism in a long time so it'll be interesting to see. I want to get back to something – I know we're short on time, I know you're not feeling well and I really do appreciate every moment with you. So I want to get to a couple of questions that I think you're going to really like. You said recently that there was an important cross between the two-year yield and the S&P 500 dividend yield. Would you mind explaining to our subscribers why you think that's so important?
Dennis Gartman: Well
Porter Stansberry: Very good. And I want to get to
Dennis Gartman: The term structure, the relationship between the front months and the back months can tell you more about supply and demand than practically anything else. When the markets are oversupplied, the front
We've had a bull market now since crude oil went above $55.00 a barrel. Quite honestly, back at $55.00 a
That's probably as phenomenally bullish a scenario as you're going to get. So $70.00 is going to bring a lot of new crude to the market but the market seems to be accepting it. The big problem that you have with supply, Venezuela has gone from almost 4 million barrels of crude five or 10 years ago down to about 1.5 million and may even fall farther than that. That's taking 2.5 million barrels of crude off the market. We've gone from 5 million barrels of crude supplied in the United States to almost 10.5 million. That's helped, but demand in
And with Venezuela effectively removed from the market – and we've had a big change in that market over the weekend with ConocoPhillips actually taking control of several of Venezuela's PDVSA as it's called – PDVSA's refineries and storage facilities – that's really removed even more crude oil from the market. So here we are at $70.00. It may still go higher. Pay attention to the term structure. If on down days you see the front months gain
Porter Stansberry: That is great to know. Is there an American oil company that you like above all others?
Dennis Gartman: You know, I like sand. I hate to talk about specific stocks, but sand is required in fracking, I like the sand suppliers. ConocoPhillips, because of what they've done over the weekend, makes sense with a very good dividend, and why would you not want to own ExxonMobil? So I'll just say own the big names, they'll do fine, they pay great dividends, they're covered, and the stock charts are starting to look very positive.
Porter Stansberry: Wow, Dennis. Thank you very much.
Dennis Gartman: OK, my friend. Cheers.
Buck Sexton: So can I ask a follow-up –
Porter Stansberry: Yeah.
Buck Sexton: – to you on the oil question?
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, please. Yes.
Buck Sexton: So May 12 they decide whether or not to certify the Iran deal. People feel like if the deal doesn't get certified by the Trump administration there's going to be a disruption in the oil market. I think Trump is unlikely to certify, but I also wonder if that really matters because is everyone already expecting that to happen, and so even if you were going to be right on this one everyone else is going to be right too, you know what I mean?
Porter Stansberry: Well, I'll go a little further. I don't really think that that is going to play a determinant role in the price of oil. It'll play a contributing role. It's where the market's focused on, I grant you that, but I don't think it really matters. I think that American supplies are growing so fast that Iran's contribution to global supply is much, much less important. I do think it matters in a bigger way than you realize, though. So fundamentally, this certification is not likely to
In other words, if the American and Saudi response to Iran is not one of conciliation but instead becomes one of confrontation, that will heat up the Persian Gulf and heat up the price of oil. So I don't think that that decision is directly relevant, but as an indicator of
Buck Sexton: It reminds me of how when Facebook had its whole bad series of hearings and it had that drop that month. I actually remember buying Facebook and being like this is irrelevant.
Porter Stansberry: It's irrelevant.
Buck Sexton: The hearings are irrelevant.
Porter Stansberry: And I was right.
Buck Sexton: The hearings were irrelevant. [Laughs]
Porter Stansberry: The decertification is irrelevant. The price of oil is going up because lots of old oilfields, including those in Iran, are having
So if the price of oil goes up because of tensions in the Middle East, all the frackers will start drilling and production will go through the roof again and you'll have another collapse in the price of oil in some point forward, but it will take six months, 12 months, 18 months before that additional production can be brought online. In the interim, as Dennis is explaining, the price is going higher and the market is bullish.
Buck Sexton: How long before other countries use fracking technology for their own purposes, by the way?
Porter Stansberry: It's much harder than you would think. First of all, it's hard because of the equipment and the expertise involved. Second of all – and this is a much more critical issue – in most
Buck Sexton: So even if you can get it out of the ground –
Porter Stansberry: – there's no pipeline.
Buck Sexton: – you can't get it anywhere.
Porter Stansberry: You can't get it anywhere. That requires a huge investment in infrastructure, and with
Buck Sexton: This is how the guy in There Will Be Blood steals all the oil from his neighbor. Remember that whole scene?
Porter Stansberry: Yes.
Buck Sexton: He has like the straw and, you know, "We drink the oil," you know that whole thing?
Porter Stansberry: Yeah, it's great. And what my favorite thing about that movie is when the guy goes, "What you don't understand is it's not that I like to succeed, it's that I really love to see others fail."
That's how I feel about being the newsletter baron.
Buck Sexton: All right, everybody. It's time for
And just to sweeten the deal a little bit, we will send you cool gear if you actually get a question here on the show. Write to us at mailto:[email protected].
First up is Paul M. He writes, "Porter and Buck, greetings." And greetings to you, Paul. "Quick and dirty question, is there any decent free website that allows you to keep a watch list of corporate bonds? Would love to be able to see various bond prices on a routine, daily, weekly basis. I cannot for the life of me find a website that does this. Porter, at one point you have to come chase tarpon with a fly rod. That's true saltwater fishing. Keep up the good stuff, from Paul."
Porter Stansberry: Oh, Paul, Paul, Paul. Yes, I have caught tarpon with a fly rod and permit and bonefish, but if you actually want to catch fish you'll use a spinning rod. I went down to Belize to this incredible
Anyways, I went down there with a friend, we were there for a week. The place is the most well-known and famous saltwater fly-fishing destination probably in the world, and so we go down there and they're like, "Well you guys didn't bring your fly rods." And I said, "Yeah. No, we want to catch fish." So six days in we have caught grand slams every single day. So every day we caught a bonefish, we caught a permit, we caught a tarpon. The other 40 people in the lodge who were all using fly rods, they caught nothing all week; not a single thing. So on the last day, guess what they all used?
Buck Sexton: Oh, yeah.
Porter Stansberry: Spinning
Buck Sexton: I had the same experience fly fishing in Alaska like five years ago. It was amazing, there were grizzly bears, all the beautiful stuff. I'm not a good fly fisherman. You know what I am good at? Throwing a spinning reel in there and pulling out some big salmon.
Porter Stansberry: Right.
Buck Sexton: It was a lot of fun.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. There's this new technology called a spinning reel. It makes it a lot easier to place your baits. Anyways, I always get a kick out of that. I like catching fish. You can go play with your fly rod in the yard.
Buck Sexton: Can I ask you a question actually unrelated to finance for one second?
Porter Stansberry: Sure.
Buck Sexton: Next week you have to go somewhere in the world to go fishing, anywhere, all expenses paid –
Porter Stansberry: Easy, easy, that's easy.
Buck Sexton: – one place, one place only. What is it?
Porter Stansberry: That's easy. Well, it would be my boat and it'd be in the Pocket outside of Chub, so 40 miles northwest of Nassau. There's a fishing place there called the Pocket. I'll take you there someday, Buck. If you couldn't have my crew and my boat, which most people can't – although you could charter it – TwoSunsCharters.com [laughs] plug – if you weren't going to use my crew and my boat then the second best thing to do would be to go to something called the Tropic Star Lodge which is in Pinas Bay, Panama. Pinas Bay is a little bay in the heart of a Darién jungle. The Darién jungle is one of the few places in the western hemisphere that has never been paved.
So there's a road, the Pan-American Highway, it goes from Alaska to all the way to the bottom of Chile – what's that called? – Tierra del Fuego, I think. Anyway, the only part of the whole west coast of the North American, Central American, South American continents that road does not go is through the Darién jungle and that's where Pinas Bay is and it's a fantastic place. It's one of the very few places in the world you have a realistic shot at catching a sailfish, a blue marlin, and a black marlin in the same day. So,
Buck Sexton: Yeah. Bonds, sorry.
Porter Stansberry: Sorry, bonds. Paul, there is not to my knowledge a free website that allows you to track bond prices. However, we are building something called the Stansberry Terminal and that will allow you to do such a thing. We should be launching our beta in June and launching to subscribers in July, so look for that.
Buck Sexton: Also, could I just ask a question? Novice question.
Porter Stansberry: Novice.
Buck Sexton: Peanut gallery. Somebody right now says, "You know what? I've got $10,000, I don't like risk. I want to invest in treasury bonds." What could they expect for the next few years?
Porter Stansberry: They would buy an ETF like SHY or they would go to U.S. Treasury direct and just buy a bond directly from the treasury. Either way I think is fine. They're going to be getting…probably around 2%, maybe 2.5%, like a three-to-five-year dated paper.
Buck Sexton: But if rates go up then more?
Porter Stansberry: If rates go up then their bonds would be worth a little bit less, and so they'd have to hold the maturity to get the full value, but that's not that big of a deal. No, you're – wherever – whatever the rate is when you buy that's what's locked in. So if you buy at a – let's say a 2.5% rate and then overnight somehow – which wouldn't happen – but overnight the rate goes to 3%, now your bonds aren't worth as much in the market anymore because people would rather have the 3% yield than the 2.5% yield.
Buck Sexton: Ah, your bonds are old and busted at that point. They are not the new hotness.
Porter Stansberry: Exactly.
Buck Sexton: I get it.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah.
Buck Sexton: All right. That makes sense.
Porter Stansberry: But it doesn't matter. You'll still get paid back at par. It doesn't matter where they're trading today. You'll still get paid back at par. That's what's nice about bonds. You know…
Buck Sexton: So you're making money if you hold them.
Porter Stansberry: You're guaranteed to make money in U.S. sovereign debt if you hold them. What you don't know is how
Buck Sexton: Right. At one point when the Treasury was really low right after the crisis, right, you were basically losing money if you kept your money in Treasury bonds because there was inflation.
Porter Stansberry: There was some very short-term insanity, meaning there were some 30-day and 60-day notes where you would've actually lost money by holding those notes, yes.
Buck Sexton: All right.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. Who knows how that happened. I think it was only because the Federal Reserve was doing all the buying. I don't think any private investors were doing that buying.
Buck Sexton: All right. Thank you, sir. Paid up member. Karen T. writes, "Hey, Porter and Buck. In regard to gold going to $5,000, in the last broadcast there
Porter Stansberry: Well, I think the simple thing to remember, Karen, is that gold is a steady store of value, and as a result think of gold as being the same all the time. So any time there is financial instability, whether it's inflationary or deflationary, gold is seen as a refuge and it will get people to buy it in more volume and see the price go up. So in deflation, you have the risk of default, you have the risk of illiquidity so people will flee to gold. In inflation, you have the rapid loss of purchasing power, you have skyrocketing interest rates, you have falling bond prices, you have falling stock prices. People will go to gold for safety.
Either way, gold will tend to do well. What gold doesn't do well in at all is the kind of environment where we have reasonable rates of interest, so ten-year treasury yields of 3% or 4%, and reasonable rates of economic growth like we have
Buck Sexton: What is the end state for somebody who really does believe in the catastrophe scenario where gold does go to $5,000? Are you actually – are you paying your rent in gold coins? I mean is that what people really think is going to happen? You know, do you buy gold because of disaster because you figure things will get really bad; I'll exchange my gold for dollars at that point with the idea that we'll then come back to, you know, making it rain and buying my new Tesla? I mean is that the way it's supposed to go or is it really Mad Max scenario you're looking for?
Porter Stansberry: So I would say that gold owners fall under a very wide spectrum of pessimism. A lot of gold buyers like myself, I would argue, are rationally pessimistic. Every time in history there has been a paper standard it's failed. I can't tell you when it's going to fail but the track record of global reserve paper currency, the track record is perfect.
Buck Sexton: It's 100%.
Porter Stansberry: It's 100%. It's unmarred by any success. It always fails. So I think that it's actually more rational for you to think of yourself as a gold-based investor and not a dollar-based investor, and that's what I – that's how I think of myself. I keep my savings, my real savings in gold. What I think is very irrational are the people who believe that there's likely to be a complete economic collapse in their lifetimes. I don't think that's very likely at all. When you study growth and productivity, when you see technological advancement, when you see how much economic freedom there still is around the world in growing amounts, if you travel and you see China for yourself, you cannot help but realize the world is growing infinitely more wealthy every single day. Every single day technology gets better in medicine and transportation and computing and in finance. Every day.
Buck Sexton: Food is so much better than it used to be, by the way. [Laughs]
Porter Stansberry: Food is better. Everything's better. And go to places that used to be completely marred by poverty. I remember the first time I went to China. And this was only 20 years ago, the first time I went to China. We had lunch for about a dozen people, OK? It was in a hovel and you got to pick out which duck you wanted because they were still alive at that point. There was no refrigeration, so if you want to have meat it has to be fresh.
Buck Sexton: [Quacks]
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. On that
Buck Sexton: Goat is good.
Porter Stansberry: Yeah. OK, you go back to any of these places today, everyone's driving a BMW living in a high rise. I mean it's unbelievable the changes in that economy, and that's an economy with more than 1 billion people in it, and the same thing hopefully will happen to India over the next 20 years. I mean – and Vietnam and lots of places like this. I mean the world is getting wealthier and trade with those places is making us wealthier. This is all good. I don't think it's rational for you to believe that the world's going to end.
I do think it's very rational for you to believe that along the way the dollar's going to fail and there's going to have to be a new world reserve currency that people can trust and that is stable. And if history's any guide, that new world reserve currency will in some way, shape or form revolve around gold, and if and when that happens the gold you buy today at $1,400 an ounce, $1,300 an ounce, $1,200 an ounce is likely to be worth a lot more.
Buck Sexton: All right. And now up from Craig R. "Dear Porter, Buck, and Country Club Guy –" who we miss, who's not with us today,
Porter Stansberry: I think that's fair.
Buck Sexton: Yeah.
Porter Stansberry: That's fair, and I like that I was the only two-time nominee. Thank you.
Buck Sexton: You are the boss. Big P as he is sometimes called.
Porter Stansberry: I have a question for you about Arianna, Buck. I've been waiting for the appropriate time on the show to ask you this. I have noticed that your star is on the rise. I don't know if we can talk about any of this yet. I'm not going to say anything without your permission, but you have been retained by a larger media company than little old Stansberry Research and you're now going to be having a larger national presence, I assume. You're also – I'm assuming this is going to continue – on TV all the time. You're on –
Buck Sexton: Fox, yeah.
Porter Stansberry: – Fox & Friends and Fox and un-friends and Fox and people screaming at each other.
Buck Sexton: Cooking eggs on Fox.
Porter Stansberry: And Fox and women in short skirts and lots of Fox things. He's making no comment. What
Buck Sexton: [Speaks in accent] Porter, it could be dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria.
No, I mean –
Porter Stansberry: You have to get – Arianna, you have to get plenty of rest and you need to stretch.
Buck Sexton: [Speaks in accent] You need to stretch for
Where's Mrs. Porter? This is crazy! All this meat day. You should be having
Buck Sexton: So it has come to my attention that in this
Porter Stansberry: Ooh. I hope you slip up just once.
Buck Sexton: [Laughs] There is a part of me that is terrified that I'll be on a live show in front of many, many people and I'll be like, "You know, hey, how are you doing? Great to have you," and then at the
And she'll look at me and then it'll all be over. So we'll have to see, but I do think there's a good chance, and yeah, I've actually been asking the bosses when we're going to get the all-clear to announce, but the long and the short version is I'll be joining a political talk show that will be launched in the weeks ahead.
Porter Stansberry: Very good.
Buck Sexton: And we will need fine economic guests, by the way, so don't think that the Stansberry family gets off the hook here. You guys are going to have to step up and tell the folks.
Porter Stansberry: Loyalty is a two-way street. We'll be there for you.
Buck Sexton: Absolutely.
Porter Stansberry: And if you ever did get yourself drummed out of show business because you [laughs] did your Arianna impression to Arianna herself, in my
Buck Sexton: I'd have to go like start a Patreon account or whatever where people could – it's like crowdsourcing my podcast revenue or something, so we figure it out. Yeah, we'll see. By the way, I promise I will let you all know if there is a face-to-face with Arianna at some point. You know her – a fun little side fact – her CEO – not her first CEO but one of the CEOs of the Huffington Post was the woman who hired me into the media in the first place, convinced me not to take out big loans and go to business school. In one day. I was going. I was into Columbia and Stern and waiting to hear from the third round of Wharton.
Porter Stansberry: Fancy.
Buck Sexton: I had no finance background whatsoever –
Porter Stansberry: Fancy.
Buck Sexton: – but I had done CIA and had good grades at Amherst and all that stuff, and so they were going to take me and I was figuring out where to go, and one day Arianna's former CEO convinced me to basically leave all the money in the world I had at the time – you don't make any money working for the government, so applying to these schools was like my savings. I mean that was basically it, right? And she's like, "Yeah, just come work for us instead," and that was seven years ago.
Porter Stansberry: It's been a fun ride.
Buck Sexton: It's been great.
Porter Stansberry: Much better than getting an MBA.
Buck Sexton: Oh my gosh.
Porter Stansberry: My advice to anyone is don't go to school for business, start a business. That's the best way to learn.
Buck Sexton: I think I've single-handedly saved many lives in financial – well, at least many financial futures and bettered many lives by convincing people who ask me for advice in areas that I actually know something about. Don't go to journalism school, that's just insane, and don't get a master's degree in international relations. Get a job where you are overseas and/or learning about international relations. If you want to get a master's because someone else is going to pay for it when you've been doing it for a little while –
Porter Stansberry: Fine.
Buck Sexton: – that's fine. Yeah, exactly. But don't come out – I know people that come out of undergrad with loans and they're like, "Let's double down, two more years."
Porter Stansberry: No.
Buck Sexton: Another $150,000. Bad idea.
Porter Stansberry: No. You know, I've hired two people who went to HBS, Harvard Business School. I've hired two.
Buck Sexton: Wow.
Porter Stansberry: No joke. He had to leave at lunch. We're done. The second guy did not make it through the first 90 days. Yeah, we're done. There are people who are good at school and there are people who are good at business and they are very rarely almost exclusively not the same people. So if you're good at school, great. Go be a professor. If you're good at business, start a business.
Buck Sexton: Yeah. I mean learning business by doing it is certainly something that I've seen – most of my more successful peers are doers and not – over degreed is really a thing now.
Porter Stansberry: Yes.
Buck Sexton: I mean I know people that have a master's, a JD, working on their
Porter Stansberry: Let me tell you about a very funny meeting I had. This is a true story. I'm maybe two years into my career as a publisher, and you might not know how I got started as a publisher, but I got started as a publisher because I got fired as an analyst. [Laughs] I didn't – no one would hire me as an analyst so I had to start my own company if I wanted to have a job, and I did want to have a job because the idea of being a deadbeat loser who moves back in with his parents is not for me. So I took my savings and I wrote for, I don't know, three or four months on my own and then I sold my fledgling business to – I partnered with Bill Bonner at Agora to start my own company. He gave me the startup capital. $36,000 was used to start Stansberry Research. $36,000.
We never had a quarter in the red. I mean business is doing great. It's not thinking about it, it's not [stumbles over word] –
Buck Sexton: Philosophical.
Porter Stansberry: It's not a philosophical pursuit. It's selling and fulfilling and renewing and selling and fulfilling and renewing. That's what you have to do. So we got started on that, and I'm about two years in and everyone has a sophomore crisis in business. So we had had a good launch, we had been successful, we had had some subscribers, we were doing OK, and then when we started to try to be more like a real business and we had to hire a staff of people, when we had to do things like budgets and – it all just started falling apart because it was no longer entrepreneurial and fun. It was like too much of a big company thing. So I had a bunch of people around a conference room table one day, and we were going to have this big meeting about how we're going to quote/unquote save the company, which
And I said something like, "Why the hell would anyone waste a whole bunch of money going to get a degree in business? It doesn't make any sense. It's like getting, in my opinion, a degree in art." [Laughs] Look, either you're creative and you know how to paint or you don't. I mean why would you go study that for two years or four years and why would you go into debt $100,000 to learn about business?
What does it take to make a sale? That's all business is about. And so I did this rant and then I realized every single person at the table – they were all working for me, by the way – had an MBA. [Laughs] And I thought, I know what the problem with the company is; it's being led by a whole bunch of boneheads with MBAs. So we got rid of those folks and we went on to greater success.
Buck Sexton: Yeah. You know, that used to be the case – I don't know in how many states, but in many
Porter Stansberry: Why should it be?
Buck Sexton: Law school is three years of what is essentially an extension of undergraduate education that has some more applicable use to the law, I guess, but everyone I know who works in an actual law firm says, "Until you're at a firm doing stuff it doesn't really matter."
Porter Stansberry: Of course it doesn't.
Buck Sexton: So anyway, these are the things that I've learned as I've gone along here.
Porter Stansberry: All right. Is that all for the mailbag? Are we done?
Buck Sexton: That's it for
Porter Stansberry: Please, love us or hate us, just don't ignore us. And we really do love to hear from you, especially if you know we have gotten something wrong or if you believe we have gotten something wrong.
Buck Sexton: And can I ask, by the way, do we have an Investor Hour Facebook page?
Porter Stansberry: We're now speaking to people in the control booth.
Buck Sexton: Yeah.
Porter Stansberry: And by the way, I want to remind everybody one last time, it's not too late to register for the conference. You can see our friend Dr. Lacy Hunt, you'll see the great Steve Forbes, you'll see the legendary Rich Dad, Poor Dad author, Robert Kiyosaki, you'll see the hysterical Penn Jillette, you'll see my friend Jim Grant, you'll hear from Dennis Gartman all at our conference. And I want to thank my staff who has for two weeks in a row delivered a URL that you can actually type into your computer. It's www.stansberryvegas.com, and if you don't yet know how to spell Stansberry, come on, get a life.
S-T-A-N-S-B-E-R-R-Y. stansberryvegas.com. There are no Roman numerals, there are no hashes, tags, slashes, dots, numbers – do we spell the number, do we type the number? I never know. Stansberryvegas.com. Come see us out in Vegas. We'll have a great time. Buck, you'll be there too, won't you?
Buck Sexton: Of course, if I'm invited. Big P., am I invited?
Porter Stansberry: You're always invited.
Buck Sexton: Well then I'm there.
Porter Stansberry: All right, everybody. Have a great week. We'll see you next time.
Buck Sexton: See you next time, everyone.
Announcer: Thank you for listening to the Stansberry Investor Hour. To access today's notes and receive notice of upcoming episodes, go to InvestorHour.com and enter your email. Have a question for Porter and Buck? Send them an email at [email protected]. If we use your question on air, we'll send you one of our studio mugs. This broadcast is provided for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Trading stocks and all other financial instruments
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