On the heels of a new report warning GE is a bigger fraud than Enron, to the latest unjustifiable IPO of a flashy tech star, to the testing of autonomous vehicles, there’s a lot to unpack this week. Dan then gets to this week’s special guest, John Doody. John Doody brings a unique perspective to gold stock analysis. With a BA in Economics from Columbia, an MBA in Finance from Boston University, where he also did his PhD-Economics course work, he became interested in gold due to an innate distrust of politicians and concern over their habit of debasing the currency via inflationary economic policies. 

In a week of schizophrenic market behavior – a Monday morning rally followed by an intense midweek selloff – a lot of people are understandably rattled. With talk of a recession becoming even more pronounced thanks to inverted yield curve, Dan gets straight to some historical perspective. Meanwhile, it’s impossible to miss the headlines and chatter about negative interest rates – including the debut of the world’s first negative interest rate mortgage – paying borrowers to take out a loan – reported in The Guardian. Launched by Denmark’s third-largest bank, this could be paving the way for an eventual global phenomenon.

Obviously you’re wondering what’s next after this week’s big market dip. And while Dan never pretends he knows for sure what’s coming, he is ready to give listeners some historical perspective. When markets lose 2.9% in a day, people are understandably jittery. But Dan’s research shows the markets have lost more than 2.5% in a single day 287 times since 1990. You’ll be comforted to know what happened after each and every one of those crashes.

It’s summertime, so Dan starts his weekly rant with something Americans should talk about once each summer – baseball, and in particular the surprising reason behind a spike in grand slams starting in 2015. In a week that includes a rash of insider selling at Beyond Meat, the mysterious disappearance of the owner of the largest coffee chain in India, to Madoff’s plea for a presidential pardon from Trump, to Forever 21’s strange shipment of Atkins Diet Bars with Plus-Sized orders – “one of the epic retail failures of my lifetime!” – there’s a lot to unpack before this week’s podcast guest.

Some familiar names are making big moves this week, as Dan discusses Microsoft’s latest plunge into AI, Alibaba’s declaration of intent to become the go-to online marketplace for U.S. B2B activity, and even shares the best – and free – source to get the sharpest analysis on Tesla he’s ever seen. Dan then gets to this week’s podcast guest, Michael Mauboussin, the Director of Research at Blue Mountain Capital Management.

In a week where markets hit new all-time highs, Dan gets to the question everyone asks with each new record. “You all know where I’m gonna come down on this.” With this high-water mark, it’s a good time to reflect on the principles of investing, from risk management, to value, to growth. Dan gets into the weeds on the literature of investor behavior – and the findings by DALBAR on individual investing performance, which while never changing year after year, are always shocking.

Dan’s long kept a close eye on mining companies for the big returns a select few of them can offer. Not for nothing is the little-known miner he’s publicly staked his reputation on up 132% and counting, for example. In fact, the top-performing Stansberry recommendation in our firm’s history, Seabridge Gold, returned 995% at one point. But the sector is fraught with risk. Between precious metal price fluctuations, geopolitical instability, and environmental challenges, there’s a lot that can go wrong.

We’ve covered mental models in previous episodes – the unique patterns of thought that open up opportunities – and reveal pitfalls – that the vast majority of more conventional minds don’t see, or even understand. Dan gets into a new mental model in this week’s episode, describing second-level thinking. “This one is very important for investors – it’s no coincidence that the first chapter of Howard Marx’s book is all about second-level thinking.”

What if we were in the midst of a gold rally, and no one was talking about it? Now that gold is up 7-8% over the last few months, Dan sheds light on why the uptick is so unreported, going largely unmentioned by mainstream media like The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times. Dan thinks the answer lies in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, and the dovish interpretation that prevailed. Clearly, the Fed is now thinking about supporting asset prices, now that their stated objectives of reaching full employment have already been met. Of course, that has some inevitable consequences. “If you screw with the market this long, the market says, “Uncle, Uncle!” And you gotta have some gold.”

In a week defined by Facebook’s announcement of its cryptocurrency Libra – which, with the company’s 2.5 billion users, may be the most powerful endorsement of cryptocurrencies to date – as well as sideshows like the deletion of Elon Musk’s always-dangerous Twitter handle, there’s a lot for Dan Ferris to unpack. Then there are the serious warning signs – including the aftermath of the Fed’s decision announced this week to hold off on raising interest rates. Dan reads the tea leaves to reveal what the Fed thinks chances of recession looming really are.