Here at the Stansberry Investor Hour, we specialize in bringing you investment stories you likely won’t hear anywhere else…
And today, Dan invites an old friend, Rahul Saraogi, onto the show to take a look at a market that is extremely undervalued and often neglected by Wall Street.
It’s a market where manufacturing is taking off…
Infrastructure spending is expanding rapidly…
And consumption is increasing at an incredible rate, fueled by over 1.4 billion people…
And despite practically zero attention from many mainstream financial sources, this market has some striking similarities to where China was 20-25 years ago…
That’s why Rahul says if you consider yourself a value investor, this could be the world’s biggest untapped opportunity…
Listen to Dan’s conversation with Rahul and more on this week’s episode.
Founder and Managing director of Atyant Capital Advisors
Rahul is the founder and managing director of Atyant Capital Advisors, advisor to the Atyant Capital family of funds. His mission is to consistently identify the best 10-15 investment ideas from among the thousands of publicly traded Indian corporations
3:24 – We’re jumping straight into the interview this week, where Rahul Saraogi joins us. Rahul is the founder and managing director of Atyant Capital Advisors, advisor to the Atyant Capital Family of Funds. His mission is to consistently identify the best 10 to 15 investment ideas from among the thousands of publicly traded corporations in India. Rahul is also the author of Investing in India: A Value Investors Guide to the Biggest Untapped Opportunity in the World.
7:40 – Rahul gives Dan an update on what’s been going on in the Indian stock market since he wrote Investing in India in 2014… “Seven years later, it still feels like the world’s biggest untapped opportunity…”
10:54 – Dan asks Rahul, “I often wonder, why is everyone so crazy about China?… I almost don’t get why the world doesn’t feel the way about India the way they feel about China?”
15:51 – Rahul explains how, in the past, government intervention has slowed the returns in the Indian stock market… “A long of impressive line of numbers multiplied by a single zero always equals zero…”
22:16 – “The most important thing for the accumulation of wealth and for growth of an economy is to have long periods of uninterrupted compounding. And that has been the great story of the United States…”
23:41 – Rahul and Dan discuss why some countries can build wealth better than others… “If the state has the power to take away your property, then you do not have the ability to compound it. You cannot build a free market capitalistic system with a dominant, interfering, appropriating state. It’s not possible…”
29:44 – Rahul sums up some big changes happening in India right now, “Agriculture will become a smaller part of the economy… Manufacturing is growing in India. Infrastructure is growing in India. Consumption is growing. And Services remains the bellwether also. So, it’s really firing on multiple engines over here now…”
32:31 – Rahul shares the biggest opportunities he sees out there… “There is a very big opportunity to invest in India beyond the biggest 20-30 names you’ll see in ETFs that the benchmarks represent… One area that has attracted a lot of capital and has done very well in the last 10 years, is the financial sector in India…”
33:40 – “The other two areas where people invested are chemical-genetic pharmaceuticals and I.T. services…”
37:16 – “Indian infrastructure is going to be a major, major opportunity for the world. With 1.4 billion people, whether it is power, roads, ports, airports, cities, urban housing… you know this is one area where you could say that India is basically starting off where China was 20-25 years ago…”
40:30 – Rahul leaves the listeners with a final thought as the interview comes to an end… “No matter what the short-term experience, intrinsic value, and fundamentals matter… If you stick with the weighing machine and stay close to intrinsic value, it’s very hard to get hit with the big zero…”
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Here's your host Dan Ferris.
Glenn Younes: Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm Glenn Younes, director of media here at Stansberry Research and I'll be filling in for Dan Ferris, so to speak, this week. Though you will hear from Dan, I'm just doing the open, Dan's on assignment. We do have an excellent interview lined up with Dan and his friend, Rahul Saraogi.
Rahul is the founder and managing director of Atyant Capital Advisors, which is an Indian-focused investment management group. They discuss Dan's most recent visit with Rahul in India and the similarities between the Indian and U.S. economies and what the future looks like for potential investors.
We're going to hold off on the mailbag this week but we still encourage you to hear from you so we have a boatload of feedback when Dan returns next week. A couple ways you can do it... send us an e-mail, [email protected]. We love your thoughts, notes, guest requests. And also, we set up a phone line so we can hear from you and you can tell us what's on your mind. Give us a call, let us know your thoughts and feedback on our feedback line, 800-381-3457. Maybe you'll hear your voice on our show.
Now it's time to hear Dan's voice and his conversation with Rahul Saraogi. That's coming up right now on the Stansberry Investor Hour.
Dan Ferris: So I need to talk to everyone seriously here for just a minute because right now we're in this weird, emotional market with a lot of fear and greed controlling what the average investor is doing with their money. That's why we're seeing a lot of money pouring into crazy investments like NFTs and meme stocks and any cryptos.
People see the market still near record highs and they're scared of getting left behind, they want to be part of all the hot "making money" stories we're hearing right now. But really, for most people, unfortunately, it's a bunch of crap. You're probably going to lose everything chasing speculative gains like that. Just ask someone who bought AMC stock or a bunch of Dogecoin a few months ago. It's the exact opposite of how I approach investing that's why I'd like for you to check out a new video I just posted online at extremevaluestock.com.
In the video, I'm sharing details of a fantastic risk-averse, value stock opportunity that my research is showing could return about 200% over the next 24 months. I'd love for you to check it all out by heading over to extremevaluestock.com. But please hurry because the stock I'll be telling you about is getting close to exceeding by buy-up-to price recommendation. And once it does, I'll probably have to take the video offline.
So one more time, to learn the details head over to extremevaluestock.com today. That's extremevaluestock.com.
Time once again for our interview today's guest is my friend Rahul Saraogi from India. Rahul is the founder and managing director of Atyant Capital Advisors, adviser to the Atyant Capital family of funds. His mission is to consistently identify the best 10 to 15 investment ideas from among the thousands of publicly traded Indian corporations.
Rahul graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a degree in economics and is the author of Investing in India: A Value Investor's Guide to the Biggest Untapped Opportunity in the World. A definitive guide on navigating the Indian markets published by John Wiley and Sons.
Rahul, welcome back to the program it's been a while.
Rahul Saraogi: Thank you, Dan, yes, indeed.
Dan Ferris: And so, Rahul, I just want to jump in because you, you're just, you're my guy in India. And I've met a bunch of folks at conferences and so forth, folks that we both know but, you know, when I really want to know what's going on, I have to talk to you. And I haven't even thought – I hate to admit it – I haven't even thought about India in probably over a year.
And like all I know about India is to look at a chart of the India ETF. It's too far off my radar screen. I think it's too far off everybody's radar screen. I know you'd agree with that, wouldn't you?
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah, absolutely, Dan, it has indeed been a while since we've spoken and it's been, what? Twelve years since you here in Southern India in Chennai with me. And we were driving around and looking at stuff. It's been a while.
Dan Ferris: Yep, it has. So is it, at any given moment when I've talked to you like sometimes, you're like well, the market's run up huge and, you know, I'm really cautious or it's way down and I'm really aggressively bullish or something. But because it is, it does seem to swing a lot.
As I look, like my only benchmark is like the India ETFs and as I look at them, they look like just about everything else, post-COVID. Just kind of a 45-degree angle up and to the right. How does it feel to you?
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah, you're absolutely right, Dan. I think that post the April, May 2020 period, almost all asset classes looked the same. And the India ETF or the India benchmarks are no different. Having said that, I would like to believe that India is a little bit fundamentally driven although there is a lot of fraught in the system everywhere.
You know India had a pretty tough few years, pre-COVID, and we can talk more about that. COVID really extended the pain that India had been experiencing. So I think yes, the rebound has been a relief from the worst levels in India, but I think that it's just starting to get warmed up.
Dan Ferris: Nice. Yeah, it did, it did, things sort of went sideways from maybe like 2016 or so through the COVID bottom in early 2020. I know you talked with us way too long ago before, but if you could just sort of for the benefit of the listeners – and frankly, me, I have to admit – if you could just re-encapsulate what was going on in that sideways period? And then we can talk about what the future looks like to you.
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah. I'm going to give you a little bit of a long-winded, preamble/introduction to this whole thing, Dan. You know, I wrote my book in 2014. It came out in 2014 and as you said in the intro, the title was The Biggest Untapped Opportunity in the World – the way I saw it then. It's been seven years and as you mentioned, not too many people think of India a lot and seven years later, it still seems like the biggest untapped opportunity.
So in a capsule, that's been the India story over the last decade. When you were here and when we used to talk about India, one of the things that has always drawn me to the Indian markets other than the fact that I'm Indian and of Indian heritage – but just dispassionately looking it as an investor – is the basic fundamentals, right?
The rule of law, the democratic government, individual property rights, which I think is becoming more and more relevant in the world today. And somehow all of those fundamentals did not translate into rewards for investors over the previous decade.
So the sideways movement that you see in the Indian ETF and in the Indian markets through 2017, '18, '19... this was really the pain period when banks were writing off huge amounts of bad loans. You know, poor governance companies were collapsing and the markets were just going through very testing times.
You know, toward the start of 2020 and none of us saw COVID coming, it really felt like India was a wound-up, coiled-up spring ready to just spring back, bounce back, and kind of take its place where it really should be. And then, COVID happened. So where we are today, I think that India has stabilized... The economy is coming back.
But I really feel like we are the start of what is going to be three, five, and maybe even longer period economic supercycle where we're going, basically, capture the upside of the sideways movement of the previous decade if you may.
Dan Ferris: Oh, that's very cool. Yeah, that's, that's – this is like its classic value. You know there's lots of value being created, as you point out, the fundamentals of the economy are very sound. And then you get in during that sideways period or even during some of the lower periods during that, and then, it's like classic value, your money is doubled before you know it.
So Rahul, when you talk about the fundamentals and you talk about like rule of law and particularly, private property rights in the back of my mind I'm thinking of the comparisons with China, right? Every time I think about China my mind goes to the differences between India and China and I often wonder like why is everyone so crazy about China? I feel like the world should feel about India the way they feel about China. I almost don't get it. And we sort of get it, right? But I almost don't get why the world doesn't feel the way about India that they do about China.
Rahul Saraogi: No, yeah, absolutely, Dan. You know, it's funny you should talk about China. So I spend all of my time in India and you're absolutely right. When anyone talks about India, the comparison with China becomes inevitable. And you know, funnily, if you were to read any of my commentary over the last decade or decade and a half, invariably, I do end up making comparisons between India and China.
So I've kind of become like quasi-China commentator as well. So I'm going to indulge you here and share my thoughts there. You know, Dan, I think China has done a brilliant job of marketing itself. Clearly, it has done a few things really, really well. I mean the physical infrastructure that it's built, the ability to produce goods in large quantities, and the productivity gains that have come from that, China has managed to do those things really well.
But then, again, it has done some things very poorly like just the amount of domestic leverage. It's close to something like $30 trillion. And China's entire financial system, it feels like one gigantic Ponzi scheme.
You know, what China has again, done very well is successfully tap the U.S. governing markets, tap U.S. investors. It has managed to evade U.S. requirements of having audits. Its companies report whatever they feel reporting. I mean, very few people know if that's real or not real.
India, on the other hand, I think is very different. There is an element of soundness associated with how businesses are run, how companies are run. You know, independent audits, governments, disclosures, whatever have you. But India has done a very poor job of marketing itself.
See, Dan, I think at the end of the day, you know one of the things that I've learned in my two decades of investing in India and otherwise is beyond a very short period of time, the investor experience is very, very important. So we started talking about fundamentals but the reality is that if you mark the market values don't increase within a reasonable period of time, fundamentals be damned. Right? I mean what are you going to do with fundamentals? You can't write a check on fundamentals.
Dan Ferris: Right.
Rahul Saraogi: And I think that's what they've done really well. I mean you have hundreds of billions of dollars of ADRs and stocks listed, Chinese stocks listed, and you can participate in them. And they've done a brilliant job of marketing themselves. I think India has failed to do that.
Dan Ferris: That's well said. You know what, though? I think there's a specific point here and tell me if you think this is right. I think there's been a lot of criticism of capitalism and free markets in the past couple of decades and there's a big belief in big institutions and big government. Everybody thinks the government should be doing more.
And in China, the government... it will do anything. It runs roughshod over its own people. It says you millions of people are going to go live here now and we're going to level all your homes and build a new city or something. And the government allocates massive amounts of capital, do they not, in China versus India where that simply does not occur.
I remember riding up the highway with you in India and I said, "What are all those little white rows of stones?" And they were people's land. They were people's property. And we went into a business park and there was a guy, we had to stop the truck because there was a guy herding goats in front of us and I said, "What's this about?' Well, the guy probably owned the land and the deal he made was he gets to, you know, herd the goats around and feed them on the grass and they get to build an office park here.
And I like that a lot more than I like the government shoving people around the way they do in India. But the world likes it, the world likes to see massive amounts of capital allocated by a big government like India. They perceive India and this entrepreneurial, capitalistic government. No, what do you think? Am I crazy?
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah, yeah, no, absolutely. And you know the line that I like to use and I might have shared this with you in the past, Dan, is I don’t know whether it's from Ben Graham or from Buffett, which is that a long string of impressive numbers multiplied by a single zero always equals zero. And one of the things about these big government things is that they can deliver a great experience to you as long as you're aligned in the direction that they are.
But you always carry the risk of that big zero. And you know I mean if you watched what's happened in the last couple of days, the government wakes up one fine day and says, "Hey, you can't have for-profit education in the country anymore." And lo and behold, you lose a trillion dollars of market cap.
So, you wouldn't be able to do that in the U.S. You have a court system... somebody would go file a class action lawsuit... all kinds of things, right? And it's similar in India so if the government said, "Hey, we want to build a new housing complex here or a housing area and everybody here should leave," somebody would go to the Indian court system and get a stay on that like they should be able to.
But Dan the real question is, you know, and coming back to investing in India, what's the big "so what?" I mean yes, like you said, everybody now is enamored by the Chinese model. You know we're almost willing to have big government and I mean people are starting to say, "Hey, if I can get a good experience, why not have big government?"
I'm sorry I'm going to use another example here, Dan. It's like that dull guy from the Matrix movie, I don’t know if you remember that where he's eating steak and he says to that agent, "I know this is not real but I don't care, it feels great." You know, "Just put me back in the matrix."
Dan Ferris: Right, that's right.
Rahul Saraogi: And it's kind of like that, right?
Dan Ferris: It is. Yep, that's a great analogy too. And I can't help point out too that the news these days and the market action is China's cracking down, the market is suffering. Right? I mean it's happening before our very eyes.
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah, yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. And I mean look, Dan, I think that the way I look at it, you know it can go on for a while, it can go on for a long period of time. I mean it's like in the stock market, right? You and I are both value investors... Just because something is overpriced or mispriced or we don't like something, it's not necessary for us to go and short that thing. We can go and find something else that we like to be long. And that's how I built my investing career.
So, you know, one of things that I kind of also learned is that I can avoid being in China but I don't have to call that Bob and I don't have say, "Hey, this is exaggerated and it's going to blow up the model." That's not relevant for me. What's important is that where am I going to put my hard-earned money and am I going to be exposed to that big zero when I invest my savings? That's what concerns me more. And that's what brings us to India and that's what I find excited about investing here.
Dan Ferris: All right, so we don't need to talk about China anymore, let's just talk about India. My perception of India is still that it's almost like everybody thinks it's one country but it's almost like it's many different countries in one. You know there are different languages. I guess lots of people speak English and maybe that transcends my concern but it seems to me like China is perceived as a monolithic economy, everybody does what the government says but India is more dynamic and there's more diversity in it. And that's a good thing I would say.
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean China is 90% Huang Chinese and if Chairman Xi continues on his path it may be 100% Huang Chinese not very far into the future, right? India, on the other hand, has a different language, the food, the language, everything changes every 50 kilometers.
You know it's a subcontinent, you're absolutely right. It's 1.4 billion people, 560-something dialects, 28 major recognized language, all kinds of food. It's like a mosaic, it's a smorgasbord of colors, flavors. It's too intense, right? I mean it's stimulus overload.
Dan Ferris: Yep. It is and it's like a free trade zone though because it is a country and it's like what the European Union should aspire to almost, it's just very open and dynamic to me.
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah. And some of the reforms in recent times, especially with technology as a backbone have unified that market all the more now, Dan. I mean India has never been a more common single economy than it is now.
Dan Ferris: Yeah. Now did you once tell me that you thought – maybe this wasn't you – somebody told me that they thought India was a lot more like the United States, which has been a very successful economy than China or Europe or anyplace else. I don’t know if you were the one that told me that.
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah, you know we did have a conversation along those lines, Dan. And let me tell you just simple facts, right? You know Harvard's endowment in the 1930s or 1940s was $40 million. Yes, they have received some gifts along the way, but today, that endowment is worth $40 billion. Sure, they've been underperforming recently, you know, it's the eighth wonder of the world that Einstein said, right? It's compound interest, it's compounding.
But the most important thing for accumulation of wealth and for growth of an economy is to have long periods of uninterrupted compounding. And that has been the great story of the United States, right? I mean over the last 200-plus years it has been a compounding machine. Whereas, you know there have been revolutions, wars, all kinds of things in other parts of the world.
And that is where this rule of law, property rights, and a democratic form of government come in, Dan. So, India has 5,000 years of individual, records of individual property ownership. You would be surprised to know that you know. India was a British colony... in '47, it became independent. So it's been less than 75 years, but there are property titles in existence today that are more than 150 years old, passed down generation to generation, and it is recognized.
And that's very powerful, Dan.
Dan Ferris: Yes, extremely powerful. There's a guy, there's an economist named Hernando de Soto who has covered this in a couple of books. It is, in fact, Rahul, it is what makes the formation of capital possible, does it not? I mean this is extremely important.
Rahul Saraogi: Yes, it's 101, Dan. I mean this is the bedrock of everything. If the state has the power to take away your property, then you don't have the ability to compound it. You cannot make a free market capitalistic system with a dominant, interfering, appropriating state. It's not possible.
Dan Ferris: Right, so everybody looks at China interfering with the Internet and these education companies and they're like, "Geez, this sucks." You know the greatest business development in the last 20 years and they're screwing with it.
But I want to do something now, Rahul, we've kind of talked from a high level – let's just go at least one step down and my stereotypic impression of India is like the industries that are big are generic pharmaceutical companies and call centers and maybe a few other things. But what's the reality?
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah. You know that's a great question, Dan. So again, I'm going to take you one or two steps back, and then give you a flavor of what India's economy looks like. So Dan, India embraced full-fledged free market, open economics in 1991. That's kind of the opening up of India. That's when India liberalized. It was about 12 years behind China. China did it in 1979, India did it in 1991.
Prior to 1991, India had a mixed form, socialist – it was a confused state of affairs, but since 1991 it's pursued open growth, open economy. Yes, property rights stayed all through but I'm saying the form of, you know, planned versus private-sector-driven growth.
Now, it's not been that long, it's been 30 years. So the various segments – so India has 1.4 billion people... 50% under the age of 30, so it's a very young country. But 65% of the population, Dan, is either directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. And that has been one of the reasons why India has remained relatively small and relatively poor country.
And then, you have manufacturing in the middle, and I’ll talk about manufacturing and you touched upon, you know, generic pharmaceuticals and some of that. And then, you have very vibrant subsector, which kind of developed since the late 1990s, so the last 20, 25 years, which is your VPOs, call centers, ID companies, and so on and so forth.
Now what happened, Dan, is that as India acceded to the World Trade Organization, in 1999 China also acceded to the World Trade Organization. And China had this 10-year head start over India – and plus, it had state-directed capitalism – where it built this head start on manufacturing. And there was also some multidistrict competition, which I think we're all realizing with all our supply chain disruptions today, that we probably overdosed on David Ricardo and you know we probably need to bring some supply chains back home.
But going back to the story, so India, unfortunately, not only did it not build a great manufacturing base, but the manufacturing base that it should have built by virtue of its own consumer market was also exported away to China. To say it another way, even the goods that Indian consumers buy started getting imported from China.
Now some of that has been, you know, the government has been trying to correct that in the last four or five years, so what you had is you had a dominant agricultural part of the economy, you had small manufacturing in the middle, and then, you had the services piece that everybody kind of knows India for by virtue of its programmers and BPO and whatnot, right?
And then, to add on top of that India underinvested in infrastructure, which is very important for a country to be competitive in manufacturing. You need large capacities of highways, ports, power, so on and so forth to be able to be a low-cost manufacturer.
Now what has happened in the last 10 years, Dan, is that as India has grown, albeit less than China, India has development of a large consumer market. And with the disruptions that are happening in the supply chains and the problems that are being faced now in China, India is truly emerging as an alternative manufacturing destination.
So a combination of three things... and India is also getting its infrastructure act together. So when you combine a large domestic consumer market that has so far been serviced through imports but will now be serviced through domestic manufacturing, belated by significant investment growth in infrastructure, and the desire for the world to kind of diversify away from being overdependent on China... when you combine these three things, India's manufacturing is now on a massive expansion spree.
So to summarize my answer, you know, agriculture will become a smaller part of the economy. There is a value addition happening over there. Manufacturing growing in India, infrastructure is growing in India, consumption is growing, and services remains the bellwether also. So it's really firing on multiple engines here now.
Dan Ferris: As one would expect from a dynamic, you know, entrepreneurial, capitalist economy. You know I almost feel, it's funny, the temptation is to say wow, so it's almost investing in India is like getting into China early. But we've covered the great differences and it could wind up being much, much better.
And like you said, you don't have that – actually, what you described with the one big thing, is that it's almost like a turkey. When you have the government in charge of everything you could wind up being a turkey. Life is good, you're getting fat, and then, you know, on Thanksgiving, your head gets chopped off. And I think that's what people are experiencing with China just a little bit of right now.
So could we go, I wonder, I mean I know you charge people money and you manage their money and you pick stocks for them. I wonder, if you don't want to go one step deeper – hey, it's cool but if you do, is there a name or two that you could throw out to us?
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah, it's not because I do it professionally, Dan, I mean that's not the reason why I wouldn't do it. I think that, you know, talking about individual stocks can be hazardous so I would kind of shy away from that. But having said that, I do want to leave a flavor of where I see the opportunities to invest in India today. Would that be a good thing?
Dan Ferris: Absolutely, man, bring it on. Yeah, sounds great.
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah, yeah. So Dan, I mean it's not as if people have not been investing in India. I mean for those investing in emerging markets there are several ETFs that they invest through, some of the larger companies do have ADRs. And then, for the really brave ones, they have managed to set up entities and set up onshore brokerage accounts and whatnot, and participate in the Indian markets.
However, as you said in your intro, you know, India has thousands of listed companies and what I do professionally is try and find undiscovered companies and then concentrate on the good ones that I like. So the proposition that I would like to leave out there for people listening is that there is a very big opportunity to invest in India beyond the largest 20, 30 names that the ETFs and the benchmark represent.
And you kind of have to peel the onion and kick the tires and dig in a little bit deeper to find those names. And I truly believe that's where the opportunities are. So one area that has attracted a lot of capital and that has done very well in the last 10 years is the financial sector in India. Especially because it was so difficult to invest in the real economy, as I mentioned. It was very difficult to invest in manufacturing and really, and on-ground businesses. What investors experienced over the last 10 years was that the fastest way to scale a balance sheet and scale a company was to invest in a leveraged lender. So private sector banks, non-bank lending companies, and basically, all kinds of financial sector stocks, those attracted a lot of capital.
And then, the other two areas where people invested are chemical generic pharmaceuticals and IT services. I believe that if we were to look over the next five or 10 years, that would change somewhat. So areas of the economy which are doing well and are likely to continue to do well are consumption. You know, the Indian consumer is at the tipping point in terms of purchasing power. And anything related to Indian consumption, I believe, is going to do very well.
And this interplayed with app-enabled or technology-enabled consumption, this is an area which is going to do extremely well in India over the next five or 10 years. So this is definitely an area of interest where one should keep looking.
Yeah, the other area, which I think will do very well in India is manufacturing, as I mentioned but India has certain specialties. India is a very responsible country when it comes to its environment and social compliance norms. And if you take the chemical industry or the specialty chemical industry and many components that go into pharmaceuticals like bulk chemicals, bulk drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and that whole ecosystem, India has very, very strong capabilities in that space.
And while the Europeans dominated that space and all the majors of western European and Scandinavian, the Chinese did come in and try to commoditize that industry but I think there is a very big pushback with a strong, you know, compliances against pollution and your environmental abuse that has been happening in China. And also, intellectual property abuse.
So India's intellectual property ethos together with its environmental compliance is making India a hotbed for global chemical manufacturing and anything to do with chemistry. So just like Taiwan is the big daddy when it comes to semiconductors, I think over the next 10, 15 years, India is going to emerge as a major, major field in that chemical space. So that's one area which is very exciting.
When you stay with manufacturing, again, India has very strong engineering and engineering-related manufacturing capabilities and that too has an intellectual property framework around it. So Indian companies have been partnering with German, Scandinavian, American companies for the longest time.
So for example, green is the new big bubble, if you may, India, unknown to a lot of people is one of the world's biggest manufacturers of wind turbines, for example. Yeah, it's a huge manufacturing destination for that. So on the manufacturing side when one looks within these specialized niches, it was consumption manufacturing.
And then, Dan, I think that Indian infrastructure is going to be a major, major opportunity for the world. You know, with 1.4 billion people, whether it is power, roads, ports, airports, cities, urban housing, this is one area where you could say that India is basically starting off where China was 20, 25 years ago.
India will not be able to replicate what China did because basically, it won't be able to raze its history to the ground, but there is sufficient upside here that a lot of capital is going to flow in and massive amounts of economic activity is going to take place in that space.
And finally, I think, you know, technology, health care, you mentioned English, India deeply intertwined with the technology leader of the world, the U.S. I think the two countries are natural allies. I see the India-U.S. relationship not very differently from the Israel-U.S. relationship, for example, although very different in size. And I think that Indian companies and Indian entrepreneurs and U.S. companies and U.S. entrepreneurs will collaborate on technology, innovation, biologics, and all of that.
So that's a very broad spectrum and there is a lot to do over the next decade now.
Dan Ferris: Sounds good to me, man. It sounds good to me. How about, Rahul, like we don't wait so long to have you back because I feel like we spend too much time like backtracking and retelling things. I want to be able to just start off with where we are and where, you know, where you think the future is going rather than that. But yeah, it was great. It's great to talk to you always. You're one of the most informed, smart investors I've ever met in my life.
Let me ask you something, Rahul, when we were, when I was in India many years ago, your firm was pretty small. I assume it's grown. I can't believe it hasn't grown a whole lot since then considering how good I think you are anyway. I wonder, can you share with us like how your AUM has grown, for example?
Rahul Saraogi: Yeah, Dan. So yeah, I think if I remember correctly, you were here in 2009. I think we managed less than $10 million at that point in time. And although we're not large from the asset management industry point of view, we manage close to $600 million at this time. So things have changed, yeah, so it's been an interesting time.
Dan Ferris: Congratulations, man.
Rahul Saraogi: Thank you. Thank you for that, Dan.
Dan Ferris: That is so awesome. And that's huge growth and it's plenty of money, you know, it's plenty. The asset management industry is insane.
But you know, I do have my final question though. I ask everybody, every guest gets the same final question and that is if you could leave our listener with a single idea today or a single thought what would it be?
Rahul Saraogi: The single thought that I would leave investors with is that no matter what the short-term experience, intrinsic value, and fundamentals matter. And I mean as Ben Graham has said, in the short term, the market is a voting machine... in the long term, it's a weighing machine.
Yes, the short term and long term is all warped up right now, but if you kind of stick with the weighing machine and stay close to intrinsic value, you know, it's very hard to get hit by the big zero. That's the thought I would leave you with.
Dan Ferris: Excellent. As soon as you said intrinsic value and fundamentals matter, I threw my hands in the air in victory. I loved it. Thank you for that, it's one of our best final thoughts, it's awesome.
All right, man, we are going to call you a lot sooner than we did this time. We're going to get you back here in six or 12 months at a maximum. OK? We need to talk to you more.
Rahul Saraogi: Thank you, Dan, it's been good catching up with you again. Take care.
Dan Ferris: All right, like I said, Rahul is, he's my guy in India. He's one of the smartest, just most capable, most well-informed investors I know. When I was over there many years ago now in 2009, his knowledge of so many aspects of the economy really, really impressed me. Like I said, we were driving up the highway and he was telling me about how they have land entitlement there. People own property and lots of people like to have – in fact, they have a lot of money in land and gold. And he was saying, you know, it's kind of frozen capital it needs to become more dynamic, people need to use it.
Every sort of business or industry that we, that we visit, every business we visited he would tell me so much about that industry before we got into the meeting. And so much, and he knew so much about each business, you know, he, obviously, has done a ton of work on these individual companies in India.
So I promise you I am not going to wait so long, we're going to get Rahul back and we're going to, we're going to try to, were going to keep India on our radar screen. I'm as bad as the rest of the world at this and I need to be better. We need to be the people who aren't forgetting about places like India, all right? And right now, like he said, they fixed the economy, the market went sideways, and now is the time to see all of those gains and all the fundamentals improve. And he said next three... five years however long should be a really fantastic time.
I want to share a quick story about a man named Ken Langone. The son of Italian immigrant, Langdon describes himself as, "A dumb kid from Long Island that barely got out of high school and almost flunked out of college." Langdon's dad was a plumber, his mom worked in a school cafeteria. But Langone lived the American dream. He went from $82 a week to one of the richest people in the world. Langdon's most famous move was an early investment in Home Depot, which enabled him to become a co-founder of what is now the biggest business of its kind in the world with 2,000-plus stores and 400,000 employees in North America.
Because of Langdon's Home Depot connection, he has unique insights into the current status of the U.S. economy. The labor shortages, supply chain issues, soaring prices, and increasing inflation. And that's why it was telling to see Ken Langdon go public on CNBC recently with an alarming prediction.
He also says the government is already creating major distortions and that the people they are trying to help are the ones who are going to get hurt the most. And my colleague, a former Goldman Sachs banker, Dr. David Eifrig agrees. He says most Americans are completely unprepared for what's about to take place in our country. What exactly is going on and what has the successful and wealthy American so concerned?
That's another episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour and I hoped you enjoyed it as much as I did and I really did. We provide a transcript for every episode just go to www.investorhour.com, click on the episode you want, scroll all the way down, and click on the word "transcript" and enjoy.
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Till next week, I'm Dan Ferris... thanks for listening.
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