Episodes

Dan Ferris:                 Hello, and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm Dan Ferris. I'm the editor of Extreme Value and The Ferris Report, both published by Stansberry Research.

Corey McLaughlin:    And I'm Corey McLaughlin, editor of the Stansberry Daily Digest.

                                    Today we're talking with Crypto Capital editor, Eric Wade.

Dan Ferris:                 Eric is our good friend and our colleague. We are blessed to be able to publish his excellent bottom-up deep research into various cryptocurrencies here at Stansberry Research. So, let's find out what he's got on his mind. We'll talk to him about bitcoin and whatever else he wants to tell us about.

                                    Let's do it, let's talk with Eric Wade. Let's do it right now.

Corey McLaughlin:    For the last 25 years, Dan Ferris has predicted nearly every financial and political crisis in America, including the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the peak of the Nasdaq in 2021.

                                    Now he has a new major announcement about a crisis that could soon threaten the U.S. economy and can soon bankrupt millions of citizens. As he puts it, "There is something happening in this country, something much bigger than you may yet realize and millions are about to be blindsided unless they take the right steps now."

                                    Find out what's coming and how to protect your portfolio by going to www.americandarkday.com and signup for his free report.

                                    The last time the U.S. economy looked like this, stocks didn't move for 16 years and many investors lost 80% of their wealth. Learn the steps you can take right away to protect and potentially grow your holdings many times over at www.americandarkday.com.

Dan Ferris:                 Eric, welcome back to the show. Always good to see you.

Eric Wade:                  Thank you, thank you. Always glad to be able to have this interesting conversation with you, because I know we don't always agree on everything. So I play a little mental game with myself of where's that balance going to fall?

Dan Ferris:                 Right.

Eric Wade:                  What we agree on, what we challenge each other on, and what we maybe don't.

Dan Ferris:                 Mostly what we agree on is Dan hardly knows what he's talking about when crypto is the subject, so that's why we have to have you on the show. [Laughter] I think that's the –

Corey McLaughlin:    Right there, yeah, yeah.

Eric Wade:                  You keep saying that and I still don't believe you. I think that's a shtick. I think that Dan doesn't know what he's talking about is a shtick.

Dan Ferris:                 So, you're buying it. You're, "I've fooled at least one person then, OK." [Laughter] All right.

                                    So, we have had you back today. We normally we talk about bitcoin a lot, you and I, on the show. We have over the past couple of years and I always have a lot of questions about it. But, this time around you have something in particular on your mind, which we were doing a little emailing yesterday and you were saying, "What do you want to talk about?" And I thought, "Well, I do have this one question about bitcoin that I'd like to start with and kind of dispense with." But you also have something on your mind that I'm eager to get to as well.

                                    But if you would indulge me, sir, on one of my many, many bitcoin questions. At our annual Stansberry Conference in October you mentioned the – I believe it was four-year bitcoin cycle. I suppose the main thing I'm curious about is, "Where are we in the bitcoin cycle right now?" I suppose is the main question and then just, maybe describe it a little bit, but you know how many times it has occurred, etc. What can you tell me about it?

Eric Wade:                  OK, so I'm going to try really hard to not sound like I'm dodging the question by putting a preamble out ahead of time in that a lot of people are familiar with the notion that bitcoin about every four years goes through a halving. So, that's just one of the four-year bitcoin cycles and has nothing to do with the price of bitcoin, it's just that the miner rewards, M-I-N-E-R, miner rewards that are paid out with every block that's found get cut in half about every four years. It's every 210,000 blocks, every block is 10 minutes, works out to be about four years.

                                    So, that's one four-year cycle. Doesn't have anything to do with the price or trading or adoption or anything like that, it's just a fundamental change in how much bitcoin is spit out. And you can think of it as reducing the inflation of bitcoin. The number of new bitcoin that are getting released from the blockchain, every block goes down by half.

                                    So, we start off with 50 bitcoin per block and then we went to 25 and then 12 1/2 and now we're at 6 1/4, so we're on the fourth cycle of that.

                                    Now from that the people who buy and sell bitcoin, the "humans" side of this, because bitcoin doesn't care – bitcoin is a network. It doesn't care what bitcoin, the coin costs, right, it doesn't care what you think about it, doesn't care what I think about it, it just cares whether or not it can conduct a transaction in a timely manner peer-to-peer.

                                    But you and I care and the collective, the Wyckoff "Composite Man" so to speak started caring, he started noticing that as this halving cycle started progressing, then the humans were treating bitcoin almost like a Wyckoff cycle. And it works out to be about – let's think of it as four one-year chunks of this human Rorschach test, right? We see what we want to see on it and those are crash and then accumulation. It should sound familiar to anybody who studies Wyckoff – and then growth and then we get a bubble.

                                    So, crash is…and this is the cycle that's repeat itself, we're in the fourth iteration of this cycle. It tends to lineup really well with that halving cycle, because the halving changes fundamentally how bitcoin works.

                                    So, I don't know if you want me to – I can give you some kind of dates, walk you through how this cycle has played out a few times. The value that is then it will tell us what's coming next. So I don't know if you –

Dan Ferris:                 Right, so where are we now? Are we in growth?

Eric Wade:                  We're at the end of the growth segment of our cycle. So, I'm going to roll us all the way back to 2011, 2012. We had a crash, bitcoin was a few bucks at that point, right? And bitcoin is famous for having crashes. 2011, 2012 and then we rolled into the 2012 accumulation stage with about 150% return.

                                    And everybody who is watching this is smart enough to know if you crash 80%, 150% doesn't get you back to a whole, right, after crashing 80%.

                                    Then we went into 2012, 2013, the growth stage that followed accumulation and we had the first halving for bitcoin and then we had a 9,000% bubble stage.

                                    Then back to the beginning of the cycle 2014, 2015 crash down 87% accumulation. Actually went up about 150% in accumulation and again you don't recover from 87% crash by going up 150%, right?

                                    So then we had a growth and another halving – it lasted about a year, another 120%. And then the famous 2017 bubble price we were up 2,300%. That ended cycle two, the second price cycle.

                                    2018 down call it 84%, that was our crash cycle again. 2019 accumulation of 130%. Then growth and that took about a year. Growth came again with another halving, 170%.

                                    Heading into the 2021 bubble that was up 260%, which was 260% on top of the 170%, on top of the 130%.

                                    Then we got our you might remember FTX and Luna crashed the whole thing, the whole market. We were well over trillions of dollars by then. The whole thing collapsed, down to 77% to end cycle three.

                                    Now, we're in the cycle that we're in. 2022, 2023 about a year of accumulation, 80% rebound. Then a growth phase of about 250% on top of that. And that was certainly helped by the most recent halving and ETFs coming online. ETFs brought a whole new buyer into it. Then towards the end of that we got the Trump optimism. Like Trump, hate Trump, doesn't matter. Bitcoin and cryptos responded positively.

                                    There was a lot of rationale for that because Trump partnering up with RFK Jr., who was decidedly pro-crypto, Trump showing up at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville that sent positive vibes. Then when Trump won the election in November we had a phenomenal Trump rally. So that just gets us toward the end of growth.

                                    So you asked, "Where are you?" We are on the cusp, we are heading into the bubble stage, which 2025 should be the bubble stage. So even though we made a trillion dollars in market-cap gains in 2023, round numbers, we still have a lot of adoption to see. Some of the –

                                    I don't know if the next question you were going to ask would be, "All right you made a trillion dollars on bitcoin this year, where do you possibly think that more growth can come from," right? We have all the tailwinds that we could possibly ask for: we have Trump coming into office, we have positive maybe SEC, get rid of Gary Gensler, etc., adoption maybe at the nation/state level, "Where do you possibly see a bubble coming from this?"

                                    Did I steal your next question? I hope so.

Dan Ferris:                 No, absolutely not. I'm just –

Eric Wade:                  So, we're thinking there's –

Dan Ferris:                 My question is, my question actually is sort of a joke. Do you remember the bumper sticker that was alleged to be seen, I never saw a picture of the bumper sticker, but it was alleged to be seen around Silicon Valley in the dot-com bust, it said, "Please God just one more bubble." [Laughter] You're like, "That's where we are right now. Please, God –"

Eric Wade:                  Yes, that's where we're at right now is I could pay everything off with one more bubble, right?

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah, that's right, yup.

Eric Wade:                  Trump has even joked about that in his more lighter-hearted moments of interviews saying, "Hey, well we'll just accumulate a little bit of bitcoin and then that $35 trillions in debt we'll pay it with some bitcoin." Because I think Trump is looking at the bubble economics of this possible as well, right?

                                    I mean imagine if America did own a million bitcoin and then everybody else followed this into the trade and that's where a bubble could come from is we have, we have possibly a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve, right? America has a strategic petroleum reserve, whether it's managed properly or not. It should always be refilled when petroleum is cheap and then maybe used when petroleum is outlandishly expensive.

                                    But we've got military equipment reserves, we've got medical equipment reserves, we've got helium reserves for goodness sakes in case we ever need that. Why wouldn't we have a bitcoin reserve? The difference being bitcoin is – now our inflation rate is less than 1% and you can't just go out and mint some more.

                                    So those... Plus imagine if America decides to have to have strategic bitcoin reserve, will anyone else in the rest of the world follow us? Will states decide that they should have their own? Will pensions decide, "Well I can make up for a lot of ills." Everyone out there listening probably is already aware that there's a lot of unfunded, underfunded pension problems facing America in the future.

Dan Ferris:                 Right.

Eric Wade:                  Maybe bitcoin can solve that. One bubble certainly could. So there you go. And that limited supply things – fuor halvings. Yeah, I think, I think we have no trouble concocting a positive scenario for 2025 being bubble year. And if nothing else it puts us in this interesting position that the – how cycles work until they don't. So this will be the fourth time, and bitcoin's fundamentals have never been better. And if this cycle doesn't work this time that would be the, "But this time is different." OK, hey, there you go.

                                    So, we're in a position where we either get a bubble cycle or this time is different, and I don't think anybody likes to hear, "Well, this time is different."

                                    The bears – if you're a bitcoin bear here you have to be saying to yourself, "Well, this time is different. We're not going to get the cycle that we earned from so many buyers, so much adoption."

Dan Ferris:                 Right, right, this time is different, never happens.

Eric Wade:                  Never. [Laughs]

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah. "This time is different" is always a sign that something other than what you expect is going to happen.

Eric Wade:                  Right, you didn't do all your research.

Dan Ferris:                 Right and it's usually overwhelmingly – it's been... Irving Fisher's permanently high plateau of prosperity and high stock prices and things like that.

Eric Wade:                  Long-term capital management. We've got a new paradigm, yeah, and we're just going to keep outperforming forever, yeah.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah, right, exactly.

                                    And you could apply that to the S&P 500 by saying, we just had two years of 20%-plus annualized returns and, you don't a get of that historically speaking. So, you don't have to be bearish, just, you know, temper your expectations.

                                    OK, well I think you've satisfied me with the four-year bitcoin cycle and I appreciate it. I appreciate you taking the time to do that.

Corey McLaughlin:    Are you a believer, Dan, in that now?

Dan Ferris:                 Well, I have no reason to believe that it's not a reasonable expectation, right? I mean to say, "Yeah, I'm all in, it's going to happen." Well, nobody knows the future, but maybe I won't be betting against bitcoin any time soon. I own a teeny bit of it at this point. So, if I get a bubble in the next year or so, my teeny bit could be worth quite a bit more and maybe I’ll sell some and keep the rest or something. I don't know. I don't know what I’ll do.

Corey McLaughlin:    Yeah.

Dan Ferris:                 You know I'm not that against it.

Corey McLaughlin:    Yeah, that leads me into a question I have about… So if 2025 is going to be a bubble times, how do we know when we're getting to the top of a bubble? Are there indicators that you kind of trust to that have worked in the past cycles that you kind of look to now?

Eric Wade:                  So there – yes, there is. I would think now oh boy how rabbit hole do you want to go? OK, so there's not a lot with bitcoin that's not known by everyone in the market, right? There's no board of directors.

Dan Ferris:                 Except Dan. Dan doesn't know any of it.

Corey McLaughlin:    No.

Eric Wade:                  Right. We're not looking at, we're not looking at the Coca-Cola just bottling and distribution company that finds ways to make sure that their numbers always hit, right? There are no numbers like that. There's no sales numbers, there's no quarterlies, etc., on bitcoin.

                                    So that means anything that we think is going to happen the real challenge is how many people are front running what we think is… If I'm telling you 2025 is going to be a bubble year and if I'm right, at what point do you start saying, "Enough's enough," right? October-ish maybe you start thinking, "OK."

                                    And when I say "bubble" I don't want people to think that we're going to get another 9,300% bubble like the first time when bitcoin was 10 million to a 100 million or something like that, right? But we could go a trillion dollars up from here, doubling half again in bitcoin, go another trillion so we're doubling bitcoin from here and be around $200,000 per bitcoin in this bubble stage. Because remember bitcoin was $15,000 just 15, 16-some-odd months ago. So, that bubble stage could put us in the 200 to 250 range.

                                    To answer you question of, "Well how do we know?" The old standbys. Well there is an actual metric that you can follow, it's called the "Pi Cycle Top Indicator." And it looks at what's going on out there and it's, lack for a better explanation, think of it almost like crossing moving averages.

                                    So, how accurate are crossing moving averages? They can be really accurate when they work there. They can be really accurate. So, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator was created from back testing. So everybody should know that, but then proved in the cycle. So, give it a couple of cycles of back testing and then cycle three it worked. We call it the "virtually perfect top indicator," and cycle three it worked.

                                    Will it work for cycle four? I don't know. I'm going to be watching it very closely though. But I'm thinking probably around October the second guessing is going to start getting the best of itself.

                                    Another thing we watch though is fear and greed index. Bitcoin and cryptos have their own fear and greed indexes. We have volatility indexes. So if fear and greed gets euphoric, if you can't get in a cab without people talking to you about cryptos and bitcoin... We got a little bit of that during this election rally, right, it was on everybody's minds.

Corey McLaughlin:    Right.

Eric Wade:                  Dumb dart throwers making tons of money. That's an old indicator that almost always works. Shoeshine guys – I don't know if anybody even gets their shoes shined anymore, but yeah, watch for all of that.

                                    When you start feeling like a genius is probably one of the best indicators, the "I'm never going to sell this. In fact I'm making plans for this second yacht and pay off my house and all that and maybe get these lines fixed." When you start doing that, that's when you say, "Oh, maybe I should sell a little." [Laughs] When you think you'll never sell, maybe sell a little.

Corey McLaughlin:    Yeah, that's good. Yeah, because – I think you did see some of that with, just like the even round number of a 100,000, like I feel like that got people's attention or it's getting close to 100,000.

Eric Wade:                  Yeah.

Corey McLaughlin:    So, yeah –

Eric Wade:                  And then apparently got married to it. This 100,000 has been pretty darn sticky, 90, 100, we're having a hard time getting past that because we got here so fast.

                                    I remember just before the election I had an alert that I sent out that said, "Well as long we stay above 54 on bitcoin and we're OK, that we're still in an uptrend." And I always think about that is well we sure moved from – as long as we stay above 54, to knocking on the door to 100,000 very quickly, blew through all prior previous all-time highs, got there really fast.

                                    So the sentiment, the American, at least, sentiment for maybe this administration will at – maybe they won't put their foot on the gas, but they'll at least take their foot off the neck of crypto. If they put their foot on the gas, whew, definitely, definitely going to get our bubble out of that.

                                    And make no mistake the cycle is called "bubble." I want people to realize it. [Laughter]

Dan Ferris:                 Yes, for a reason, for a reason.

Corey McLaughlin:    Yeah, no. Don't worry. We'll get into it. Yeah.

Eric Wade:                  Yes, it's called... The last three of them have been a bubble and looked like a bubble and felt like a bubble and anybody who says, "They're a bubble," you're right, absolutely you're right. You become wrong when you say, "It's a bubble and it's popped and it's never coming back," because it's proven that one wrong three times over.

Dan Ferris:                 Right. And the cycle after that is called "crash." [Laughs] So that's the other thing.

Eric Wade:                  It's crash.

Dan Ferris:                 If you want to know…

Eric Wade:                  Call them like I see them, right?

Dan Ferris:                 Right.

Eric Wade:                  Yeah, the cycle after that is called "crash."

Dan Ferris:                 All right.

Eric Wade:                  And we're not shy in this, in this industry.

Dan Ferris:                 But it's interesting though –

Eric Wade:                  If you can consider 70% or 80% a crash.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah. I mean as a trading opportunity of course bitcoin is just – it's heaven, right, because the insane volatility and this tendency to trend for a few years it's like the most awesome medium-term trade that you could ever imagine or has been.

Eric Wade:                  Correct me if I'm wrong in this, maybe you can on this, but it almost perpetually feels like you missed it and you have plenty of time at the same time.

Dan Ferris:                 Always. Yep, at the same time.

Eric Wade:                  Yeah, at the same time.

Dan Ferris:                 That is, that's one of the smartest things I've heard anyone say about bitcoin is that you always feel like you missed it, and you always feel like the upside is just virtually almost unlimited. You just feel like, "God the runway on this thing is a decade or two or three or five or whatever it is and it's going to go to the moon and be a million bucks or whatever, but I'm too late." [Laughs] You know it's just –

Eric Wade:                  Yeah.

Dan Ferris:                 It really screws with your emotions I think because it has been so incredibly volatile.

Eric Wade:                  I feel like there's, there's this interesting phenomenon that a lot of bitcoin adherence… And another fundamental about bitcoin is just the hoarding: H-O-A-R-D-I-N-G, hoarding. That there's a lot of bitcoin buyers that accumulate bitcoin that they never plan to sell. "I'm waiting for a million bucks on mine," etc. Stuff like that.

                                    And so we'll get a paycheck, we'll get a bonus, we'll get a – sell something, a royalty, something like that and go out and buy some more bitcoin. And think that, that maybe a lot of time these accumulation zones are because everybody that wants some bitcoin runs out and buys some, push the price up 60,000 to a 100,000 OK? And now we're tapped out. We have everything we could possibly put into it, so bitcoin has to sit here and accumulate for a while and that's the buy opportunity that a lot of people I think hopefully should be taking advantage of, yourself included. Add to your stack. It's hard to buy tops.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah, it is.

Eric Wade:                  But go ahead. [Laughter]

Dan Ferris:                 Yep. Keep stacking stacks. Right. OK.

Eric Wade:                  Keep stacking stacks, yeah. Well, obviously if you're willing to participate in something that has a bubble and a crash every four years, a bubble and then a crash every four years then stacking stacks on that.

Dan Ferris:                 All right. So, let's now get to the thing that I'm actually much more curious about, which we've talked a little bit about by e-mail. I mean when I say "a little bit," like you sent me like a one or two-sentence e-mail or something and I thought, "Oh, OK. Well let's talk about that whatever that is." And presumably you know what I'm talking about, because I actually just forgot it here. But I guess the question is: What's on your mind, my friend, is really the question.

Eric Wade:                  Well, so I hope I can sneak in a must buy that's not bitcoin by the time we're done here, sometimes from my research.

                                    A couple of things on my mind. First off, bitcoin doesn't operate in a vacuum. Bitcoin thinks it does and bitcoin maxis think they do and Michael Saylor thinks it does. But bitcoin doesn't exist in a vacuum. There are a whole other half of our industry. Let's say bitcoin is 55%, 56% or whatever of all crypto industry out there, but that means there's another 45-or-so-odd percent of crypto that's not, and we call those "altcoins." And they have a full spectrum of better technology, different technology, ludicrous silliness, offensiveness. There's, there's cryptos that are memes, there's cryptos that are brilliant, there's problem solvers. It's almost like an unrestricted Nasdaq, pink sheets, foreign markets, and teenagers or tweens that nobody can tell them, "No," all wrapped up into one market, right?

                                    It's very exciting. You have cryptos that can start one day and be $10 million by the end of the day, a $100 million by the end of the month and then go away. When Peanut the squirrel got killed by the State of New York a crypto popped up called "Peanut" and jumped up to hundreds of millions of dollars in value, because the technology makes that possible. And that unrestricted smart contracts, decentralized exchanges, new coins, memes like I said, a lot of AI – that's a very exciting industry and it tends to follow behind bitcoin.

                                    We call it altcoins. We even have kind of identified altcoin season and there's an altcoin season index where when... It used to be that people would bitcoin, make some money and then they'd – some of them would look for how they could take some of that money and put into something else. Some of it went into Lambos. Obviously, that's where we got our reputation for liking our Lambos. But some of it would go into altcoins and we started trying to track that and start keeping track of, well let's just say like use the example I used, let's say bitcoin does accumulate another couple of trillion dollars and goes from $2 trillion to $4 trillion and then we're at the bubble stage and we think, "What do I do next?" "I want to take some of my money out, Lambo, house, cosmetic surgery, whatever, some altcoins, maybe some top 10 altcoins, then maybe some top 100 altcoins and then some top 1,000 altcoins that all do other things for people that are more adventuresome."

                                    So, that's where our research service comes in, is we're constantly looking for, "Well, who's pushing our technology?" "Who's creating things that either we never knew we needed or maybe Wall Street needs or maybe the MDs need, etc.?" "What is AI going to spend? What is AI going to spend its money on?" "How is AI going to pay each other," etc. "What kind of technologies do we need to control AI?"

                                    I just got back from Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas, and I would say every third booth... I went to the International Startup Pavilion, every third booth had something to do with AI one way or another and drones. I got to tell you that's a little scary that drones and AI [laughs] in the same piece of equipment that's a, that's a little scary, but that's where we're heading.

                                    So, yeah, crypto as an industry has an answer for that as well, the altcoins that we start looking that can do something besides just bitcoin.

                                    Maybe you're thinking of the time that you had to convert your whole office over to Microsoft Office or something, right? Everybody used faxes and papers and then at some point we started using spreadsheet and Microsoft Word. Well, we're perpetually on that cusp with crypto as well, is that should we be using decentralized ledgers, blockchain for different tools? And I met a lot of people that were doing exactly that at the Consumer Electronics Show. Like I said, International Startup Pavilion, a lot of companies around the world that are saying, "I could use blockchain to solve this." And that could make us a lot of money.

                                    I think that might be what you're asking about. I think there's some blockchain projects out there that are established, yet phenomenally undervalued.

Dan Ferris:                 Mm-hmm, ah.

Corey McLaughlin:    Yeah, that's what we want to hear about.

Eric Wade:                  So I'm hoping you'll ask me more about that.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah, that is, that is like behind, you know, just the phenomenon of bitcoin itself, blockchain became such a buzzword. People put it on their corporate names just to get their stock to go up.

Eric Wade:                  Right.

Dan Ferris:                 But just like the Internet, the bullsh** gets washed away and then, you know, what's left is useful to somebody and maybe really just hyper useful to a lot of us. And it sounds like you're telling me maybe that's where we are now. We've gotten past the hype of what everything you could do it with blockchain and people are really doing things it sounds like you're telling me.

Eric Wade:                  Do you remember when Larry Ellison of Oracle said, "If I had called my company 'Oracle.com' it's worth a trillion dollars." [Laughter]

Dan Ferris:                 Right.

Eric Wade:                  Yeah, we, humans do this for and to ourselves, right? Dot-com anything went bonkers and then sold off, and then we had a nice decade of prosperity for things that actually didn't, didn't matter whether they were called dot-com, but if they used that technology, if they shifted bricks and mortar to a digital technology. And then you're right crypto went through that is if you call yourself "crypto" anything, "blockchain" anything, Long Island Ice Tea Blockchain and boom all went crazy.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah, Long Island Blockchain.

Corey McLaughlin:    Yeah, that's my favorite.

Eric Wade:                  Yeah. So we survived that and AI is in that now. I was talking to my Crypto Capital subscribers and said, "I would say what I saw at –" Again, Consumer Electronics Show, International Startup Pavilion, so this is as forward-looking as you can possibly get that are willing to share themselves with the world, right? And I saw AI outnumber crypto 20-to-1 there. That's what I would estimate 20-to-1 as far as we're using AI to do make your bed, AI to tell you whether or not you have glaucoma, AI, etc. Some real uses, some ludicrous uses, but 20-to-1. But everybody that I saw that was building with crypto was, "We're using it because we like the technology, not because of flash, the zip, the appeal, etc."

Dan Ferris:                 That's cool.

Eric Wade:                  So what I'm looking for, yeah, absolutely.

Dan Ferris:                 Getting past, getting past that point is a real step forward.

Eric Wade:                  If you can consider an industry where one of our top coins of the last few months is Fartcoin, as having some measure of maturity? [Laughter]

Corey McLaughlin:    It's a mature teenager, yes.

Eric Wade:                  Yeah, those, those are both true, right?

Dan Ferris:                 Right.

Eric Wade:                  We buy stuff called "Fartcoin" and I'm claiming we're more mature than we used to be.

                                    So, I'm not really – I'm not out there looking for opportunities to out-compound the other guy by a couple percent a year and I understand that's a very suitable business model for hedge funds to beat the other buy by a couple of percent, a couple hundred basis points a year or something like that.

Dan Ferris:                 Sure, yeah.

Eric Wade:                  We do knowingly look for outsized risk reward. We have two 20-baggers in our portfolio now that I'm not ready to sell yet. We're riding them for more and they're already a 20-bagger or more. I think you may or may not have known this, Crypto Capital has more 10-baggers than I think anyone in Stansberry's 25-year history, which is it's difficult for me to say that because Stansberry's where rock stars go to do their research. But the pool of talent here over that last 25 years is phenomenal, but that's what crypto offers and crypto research offers. Our five-year average gain is about 148% on each recommendation, goods and bads. We take our bruises in Crypto Capital.

                                    So, if you can handle the volatility, the ups and downs that we've been talking about. The fact that we own our crash stage that's part of the price you pay to outperform and you can see that.

                                    After the election, Trump, everything did well, but crypto's created a trillion dollars in the months following Trump's election and that's how optimistic the crypto industry is that there's more to come on that.

                                    So, I had a question for you. I do, I do want to spill the tea on something that I think everybody should own some of, including yourself, not just bitcoin.

Dan Ferris:                 Bring it [laughs], yeah.

Eric Wade:                  I have a question for you. Before I get there, do you think we're talking to anyone in your audience who doesn't own at least some bitcoin, $100 worth, $1,000 worth, maybe some of the ETFs, something like that?

Dan Ferris:                 I bet we are.

Eric Wade:                  Do you think everybody's on board by now?

Dan Ferris:                 No, I don't.

Corey McLaughlin:    No, I don't think everybody, no.

Dan Ferris:                 Not at all, no.

Eric Wade:                 OK. So, so there might, there might be some skeptics still out there?

Dan Ferris:                 I think yeah.

Corey McLaughlin:    Probably.

Dan Ferris:                 And I think there's like more than skeptics. I don't think – I think there are a lot of people who aren't merely skeptics, they're like, "Oh bitcoin crap it's going to fail. You can hack it and it's not, it's not anything like what it's purported to be." So, I'm certain that we are talking to some number, I don't have a feel for what the percentage is, whether it's 5% or 50%, but, but there's some number of people listening to this I guarantee you do not own bitcoin.

Eric Wade:                  And that's fair.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah.

Eric Wade:                  One of the issues that comes up from time to time is whenever I'm talking... Because you had mentioned the Stansberry Annual Event and that's sometimes the only chance I get to talk to people that are kind of outside my tribe. And people walk to me and they'll say – well there's a cadre of, "Bought the top, sold the bottom, never going back. That hurt too bad, I'm never going back."

Dan Ferris:                 Right, yeah, that's typical.

Eric Wade:                  I'm not talking about those people.

Dan Ferris:                 OK.

Eric Wade:                  But there's people who will challenge me on, "Well, how good is your bitcoin going to perform. I'm not even talking about price, but how, how good is it going to work when there's no internet or no electricity or something like that?" So I know there's… And that may be an over-simplification of what some peoples' doubts are.

                                    The fact that so many of us hoard our bitcoin actually turns a lot of investors off. That there's big piles of bitcoin. Michael Saylor turns some investors off, right, that he's accumulating so much bitcoin. Or the idea that the U.S. government has let's say 200,000 bitcoin that they could dump at any moment. That they've collected over the years from, from criminals, etc.

                                    So, yeah I just, I, I don't really get to talk that much. Most of what I do is talk to people to who are already on the, in the tribe, so I thought I'd ask that, about that.

                                    But we have a special report that we're putting out that is about the crypto opportunity and if someone is not willing to buy bitcoin, the reason I'm bringing this up is because I'm wondering if there's anyone out there who would leapfrog bitcoin? Who would say, "I'm not sure I buy that, but that last thing I heard about now that has some real-world applications" or something like that, right. A technology, technology upgrade, technology change.

                                    So we have a report that we're just putting out about an opportunity that we think is going to be a disruptive technology. I'm not going to talk about that one here. I've got one that I do want to tell people to buy. This isn't it. But it could be – the one that I'm talking about could be a 10-bagger, could be a 20-bagger if they just make a small splash. But I think this technology has an opportunity to replace maybe Ethereum or Solana and we put it as like a 384-bagger, 384X. I don't mean 384 percent.

                                    So, to the skeptics that are out there I just ask them like, "How many of those –" Like I have invested in startups. I don't know if either of you have, but when you're investing in a micro, an angel level or a startup level or VC level or something like that, you look for those, right? You look for something that, "If this works I could make multiples-upon-multiples on my money and in this case 384 times my money. It might not work, but worth looking at, right?"

                                    You put $100 into that or $1,000 into that or something and it pays off a lot of your other sins.

                                    So, I always wonder like is there a cadre of people out there that would say, "I still don't love bitcoin, but wow, a technology that I've never even thought of before that maybe the world needs." If that came online [laughs] 384X. Is it worth maybe looking past some skepticism for?

                                    So that's something that... The kind of research that we do is we're looking for those, we're looking for those that could maybe convince the world to try a new technology.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah, as far as people who leapfrog I have no feeling for that whatsoever.

Eric Wade:                  Yeah.

Dan Ferris:                 I'm more interested in what it is you're talking about that they're going to leapfrog to. [Laughs] I'm like, "OK, like what is this thing that I have to own?"

Eric Wade:                  Well that, that one I'm not going to give away.

Dan Ferris:                 OK, yeah. We'll set that aside.

Eric Wade:                  But I will give, we'll give away a different one.

                                    So, to lead us up to that I just, I just went to Texas. Most of the story about what's going on in Texas right now is bitcoin focused, because some of the biggest bitcoin miners in the world are relocating to Texas, good energy, good laws are coming from Texas. They're getting a warm reception there. And Texas isn't waiting for Washington, D.C. to clean up their laws, right? Texas is thinking to themselves, "We want a positive digital asset, positive blockchain environment."

                                    And I'm thinking also about like I said I just left Consumer Electronics Show, International Pavilion, there were startups there from around the world, Netherlands, Belgium, Singapore, Israel, India, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan, Switzerland, Hong Kong, et cetera, but a huge presence from France, huge presence from Korea. I saw Turkish, smart contracts, bring smart contracts online there. And they are currently working on Polygon, so that's one that if, if anybody can be talked into looking at something Polygon is in our model portfolio and we're big fans of that one. We think Polygon is going to do really, really well over this next cycle.

                                    Remember, we talked about when you – when bitcoin peaks and the Altcoins follow, what do I buy next? Polygon.

                                    But maybe the one that, that I really think everybody should be paying attention to is Internet Computer. And this to me satisfies that cheap, hated, and rising mantra.

Dan Ferris:                 You've mentioned this before I'm sure of it.

Eric Wade:                  I know there's people that are listening to me right now, if you're the least big skeptical, you're going to say, "Oh, Internet Computer, you mean the one that launched with like a $300-and-some odd million, $300-and-some odd billion market cap and then collapsed 90-some-odd percent?" Yes, yes that one, that's what I'm talking about. Right now it sits at about $5 billion market cap.

                                    I'm going to try to make the case right now for the difference between trading and research and what we do is research. We don't trade so much. Some of our cryptos we've held for three, four years. We'll get in and get out when it's time to get out. We'll stop loss sometimes when it's appropriate. But we don't think of ourselves as traders. We think of ourselves as research, because it allows us to buy the dip, if you right the difference between trading and research is if you've researched something very, very thoroughly and you know the value is there just undiscovered, yet, yet to be realized then you'll buy more when it goes down. This is the one I think you should, you should start accumulating as well, Internet Computer, ticker symbol is ICP. It's about $5 billion market cap.

                                    I think right now, within the next let's call it 12 to 24 months it should be a $50 billion market cap, it should be a top 10 coin, maybe, maybe top 5. It's a technology that's different than any other blockchain technology out there.

                                    And without talking people's ears off I'll tell you what I mean by that. I think it's going to challenge Solana and then Ethereum in time. So, so give me 12 to 24 months I think it could be a 10-bagger in your portfolio. Give me a little longer than that I think it could be an 80-bagger as it catches up to and consumes Solana and Ethereum. Because thanks to…

                                    Internet Computer has a unique technology that allows it to run other blockchains nodes within its blockchain, which to me means Internet Computer could be basically the internet of blockchain. Like when you use Amazon you might be using their app, but you're using the internet, Facebook, anything, iTunes, anything that you consume digitally, you're consuming the internet as well, right? But the internet isn't monetized. Well, ICP, Internet Computer does monetize that and the fact that it is currently running a bitcoin node and an Ethereum node already and future plans to add on to top blockchains.

                                    What I'm saying is bitcoin is running on ICP and so is Ethereum and eventually all of the top blockchains.

Dan Ferris:                 What is "running on it" mean? Does that mean every time I buy bitcoin I'm, I'm doing it using ICP?

Eric Wade:                  No. It means – I'm glad you asked that, that's a, that's a great distinction that we need to make.

                                    What, what it means is that the entire bitcoin blockchain infrastructure can be contained within Internet Computer, so, or Ethereum, et cetera. So, blockchains are famous for not talking to each other. And one of the big problems that we've tried to solve for decades is, "Well how can I get a blockchain to talk to another blockchain?" Bitcoin doesn't…

                                    Your, your line, right, the fish doesn't know it's in water, OK? That's classic for blockchain. Bitcoin has no idea that an Ethereum blockchain even exists. It's not like Sprint and T-Mobile, well no there's Verizon and T-Mobile that know that there's another network out there that they have to hand something off to, right? It's not like a cell phone and as you drive across the country your, your technology has to talk to other technologies that hand, that hand each other things.

                                    It's not like when I send you an e-mail and my server knows your server is out there and says, "Here, read Eric's e-mail."

Dan Ferris:                 Mm-hmm.

Eric Wade:                  They don't know each other exists at all.

Dan Ferris:                 Eric though to a certain extent that makes sense for something that is trustless and peer-to-peer, it just goes straight from me to you and there should be nothing in between it seems to me.

Eric Wade:                  Right, right. So, Internet Computer the way they're built that allows you to run a program, it could be, it could be a video game, it could be horoscopes, it could be a ledger, it could be anything that runs on Internet Computer, but side-by-side one of the programs that's running on Internet Computer is bitcoin. So imagine you have an AI that you want it to do certain work for you. "Every morning I want you to check these 50 stocks" and etc. You train your AI agent to do that. And if it needs information that has a cost and it has to go pay for that… We've talked about that in past. That Cathie Wood and Art big believer in well bitcoin is the currency of AI, right? AI can't have a debit card, so it will spend bitcoin on Lightning Network or something like that.

                                    Well, what if your AI and your bitcoin and your Ethereum could all talk to each other on another platform just like the internet? They all talk to each other and you don't care, but it's not monetized. Well this one is. So imagine being sitting around in 1980 when nobody knew what the internet was, it existed, nobody had it, nobody was really using it and thinking to yourself, "I wish I could get a fraction of a penny every time an e-mail got sent or an HTTP got called up, etc., an FTP got sent, that's where we're at with this.

                                    So, like I said we have a full-blown research report on this. ICP it's out of Switzerland, cheap, hated, and rising. It's plunged from $300-and-some-odd billion market cap to $5. I think 12 to 24 months it should be around $50, that's a 10-bagger.

                                    Anybody who's so bored with 10-baggers that they just have so many of them in their portfolio that they think, "I don't need another..." "What am I going to do? That's such a tax nuisance" and all that, then don't listen to me on that one.

Dan Ferris:                 [Laughs]

Eric Wade:                  But if you're not bored of 10-baggers start accumulating ICP. The reason I, the reason I always try to make a distinction of research versus trade is if I tell you, "Buy ICP," we all what's going to happen. The gods of crypto listen to Investor Hour and it's going to drop $3 next week, right?

Dan Ferris:                 That's right, yeah. [Laughs]

Eric Wade:                  The minute I say this, because Eric can't ever say, "ICP" and that it goes up $30. No it's going to drop $3 and there's going to be somebody out there that's saying, "That guy I could wring his neck" buy more. That's the confidence of the research is I think this is probably my highest conviction research that I've, that I've  published in a long time.

                                    So, there you go, cheap, hated, and rising, Internet Computer, get, get yourself some while it's still only $5 billion.

Dan Ferris:                 OK, so why a 10-bagger in the next 12 to 24?

Eric Wade:                  I think it's underpriced. Well, I think the hate has been oversold. It has started to recover. I mean the mantra of "cheap, hated, and rising" you need the rising in there, right? We didn't – we're not buying the bottom here. We're waiting to see that it didn't die.

Dan Ferris:                 Right.

Eric Wade:                  It plunged 97-and-some-odd percent and didn't die. So, didn't die that's one big criteria and still working. Starting to accumulate a lot of users. It's not just a technology, it's out there by itself that nobody's paid attention to yet. Accumulating users, accumulating a lot of use cases and I think we're starting to see some upward momentum. We'll see some, we see enthusiasm that will push the token price up from $12 to $16, and then we'll see a bad day in the market, and it will drop it right back down. So, we're in that stage.

                                    But we're starting to also see higher lows. I think your audience is smart enough to know, you know, when you start seeing sell-offs, but with high lows, those are, those are dips that you buy.

Dan Ferris:                 Mm-hmm, yeah.

Eric Wade:                  So, oh, so you asked me a direct question though is why is it going to go up? Because it's a superior technology and it's going to start accumulating a lot of, a lot of pelts from other cryptos that aren't maybe as necessary as it. And I think that there are a lot of users coming online with it that see it's, it's fast, it's cheap, it's a superior technology.

Dan Ferris:                 OK. I will be, we'll be keeping an eye out for that one I'll tell you. When we get to a 10-bagger we'll have you back on the show. You know, we'll try to it that day. [Laughs]

Eric Wade:                  I appreciate that, I appreciate that.

Dan Ferris:                 Yes, yeah.

Eric Wade:                  Or when it drops 50% and you want to go, "Yan, yan, yan" to me.

Dan Ferris:                 Right. You also mentioned this other one, the Polygon.

Eric Wade:                  Polygon.

Dan Ferris:                 And I feel like we kind of glossed past that, we went to ICP, but you sound excited about Polygon as well.

Eric Wade:                  I do. There's a phenomenon in the world that bitcoin is number one, crypto, Ethereum perpetually number two crypto and some of the hate that Ethereum gets is as soon as anybody starts using Ethereum it can cost $5, $10, $50 for a transaction, etc. They've been doing a lot of upgrades to try to solve that.

                                    But also, I'll remind you back to where I said, "What about blockchains that don't talk to each other?" So a lot of blockchains try to make themselves compatible with Ethereum.

                                    Well Polygon is solving that. And if anybody remembers, what did we hear on the news every night leading up to the election was what was going on Polymarket? Polymarket was a technology where we could bet on the election. It was built on Polygon. So, it was a real-world application of I can make a $1 bet, a million-dollar bet, whatever it was, I could make a $1 bet on the election or something like that and the fees don't take all my profits on it, because Polygon can – it operates like Ethereum and basically is accumulating all of the business that is Ethereum like onto one chain.

                                    Kind of a common theme with me is I'm looking for something that solves a problem and thinks bigger than its, than itself. But Polygon allows chains to interact, and Polygon can scoop up business from a lot of different chains.

                                    So, I don't want to say it's too similar to ICP but solving similar problems. And that is a big problem, right? We've got tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars locked up in blockchains that don't talk to each other. So solving that problem, being able to hand them over to each other.

                                    You could think of – one of them is, is ICP or Polygon, one of them is like making phones all talk to each other, the other one is like making the internet all talk to each other. And that's kind of the value proposition of Polygon is it allows all of the different Ethereum compatible chains to sort of have a midpoint, a glue that they can all, they can all, um, get the advantage of faster transactions, lower fees, and still be Ethereum compatible.

                                    So, Polygon is another one I think everybody should own. A little harder to buy because it's had a great, tremendous rally. But if you're looking for something to buy on dips and have some blue chips in crypto then yeah there's, there's two of them, ICP and Polygon.

                                    Hey, I got to sneak in two, two that are in my research. That's the kind of research that we do with Crypto Capital is we're looking for that kind of stuff for anyone that is curious.

Dan Ferris:                 All right, well that's, that's awesome. We got two, two, two out of you. We're actually –

Eric Wade:                  That most people have to pay for. [Laughter]

Dan Ferris:                 That's right, most of you have to pay for it.

                                    So, it's time for our final question actually, now that we got two awesome picks out of you. And the final question is the same for every guest no matter what the topic. If you've said the answer already, feel free to repeat it, there is no shame in that. And the final question is simply this: If I could just please ask you to give our listeners a takeaway, if you could leave us with a single thought really, what would it be?

Eric Wade:                  Set a goal, respect the goal, but give yourself a possibility to outperform.

Dan Ferris:                 Set a goal, respect the goal, give yourself a possibility to outperform.

Eric Wade:                  Now that that's obviously a crypto-centric problem to have, right?

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah, right.

Eric Wade:                  Buy something with a goal.

Dan Ferris:                 Mm-hmm.

Eric Wade:                  Five-X, 10X, respect that goal, "How do I know when to sell?" We talked about that, right?

Dan Ferris:                 Mm-hmm.

Eric Wade:                  But, what if, what if I'm right? What like, right, you don't, you don't get to 384X, 384-baggers without having taken some money off the table. [Laughs]

Dan Ferris:                 Right.

Eric Wade:                  I mean at Crypto Capital we always take, take money off the table. So set the goal, respect the goal when you get there, but give yourself an opportunity to outperform.

Dan Ferris:                 OK.

Eric Wade:                  Don't, just if you, if you 3X your money don't immediately sell it all and look for something else, because what if you're right?

Dan Ferris:                 Mm-hmm.

Eric Wade:                  What if your research, what if your trade, what if your position is right and it really is a 10X? Volatility can shake a lot of people out. So, so there you go, set the goal, respect the goal, but still maintain your, your opportunity to outperform in case you're right.

Dan Ferris:                 All right, yeah, sound good, I get it. It's, it's not, not bad advice at all.

                                    Well listen, Eric, it's always a pleasure to talk to you and thanks a lot for being here.

Eric Wade:                  The pleasure is all mine.

Dan Ferris:                 And giving us a couple of picks, yeah, you bet. [Laughs] Thanks a lot.

[Music]

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[Music]

                                    I always enjoy talking to Eric because he's an expert in something that I have like almost no clue about. [laughs] So it's all – every time he talks to us it's all brand new, [laughs] so you learn all kinds of things.

                                    I didn't know of the existence of Polygon. I knew about Internet Computer, because I think he's talked about it before, but I couldn't have described it the way he did.

Corey McLaughlin:    Right.

Dan Ferris:                 So, so lots of new stuff and a couple of crypto picks. Do you own any bitcoin?

Corey McLaughlin:    I do. I own a fair amount of bitcoin, actually.

Dan Ferris:                 Oh.

Corey McLaughlin:    And I have for a little bit. It's become a lot easier now also to kind of buy it and deal with it. There's different avenues. You know you got the ETFs now and you got –

Dan Ferris:                 Mm-hmm.

Corey McLaughlin:    That's one of the things during each of these cycles that he was talking about, these boom and bust cycles, if you got washed out of one of them at, at some point, if you had just done nothing and then came back in like four years later, you, you see this progression in the technology and like the what he's saying that some of the maturity of the projects and whatnot and so that's one of the things it's a lot easier to... I was just bringing that up because it's, it's a lot easier to I think to buy it directly or get exposure to it now than it was four or eight years ago if you'd tried to do it.

                                    But yeah, that was, that was good. Yeah, I know the names of those smaller coins that he mentions. I don't know specifically what they do and so that was good to hear his explanation.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah.

Corey McLaughlin:    And that really is what I think differentiates Crypto Capital from like most of the other crypto stuff that you'll see [laughs] on the, on the Internet.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah.

Corey McLaughlin:    I haven't seen anywhere else that has research into what these coins actually represent and what projects they do.

Dan Ferris:                 Right. I know Eric does like bottom-up fundamental research of this stuff the way we do with companies and he understands the purpose of it, why it was created, what he expects it to do, you know, and he has ideas about the upside based on various parameters. It, it is unlike anything else. Most people are just – most of it is pumping, right, it's just people sheer pumping cryptos. There's very little real research like what Eric does.

                                    I'm glad we publish it [laughs] and no – I'm glad nobody else has Eric, we have him. [Laughs]

Corey McLaughlin:    Yeah, no, me too. And then one of the things like he also which we really didn't talk about, but he makes it – I feel like a good portion of what he does too is like guiding people through how to actually buy these things and you know what the warnings to look out for, you know, how to differentiate between the Fartcoins of the world and the more legitimate things. And then yeah, it's just if you're interested in crypto at all. I mean he's the guy you want to follow.

Dan Ferris:                 Yeah, Eric is the crypto guy. It was really a lot of fun to hear what he has on his mind these days and, you know he's a friend and a colleague so we know him well and we will be having him back. If you're into crypto it won't be long probably, [laughs] we'll probably always have him on a couple times a year as long as we do the podcast and as long as he's with Stansberry.

                                    All right, well that was another interview and that is another episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour. I hope you enjoyed it as much as truly did.

                                    We do provide a transcript for every episode. Just go to www.investorhour.com. Click on the episode you want, scroll all the way down, click on the word "Transcript," and enjoy.

                                    If you liked this episode and know anybody else who might like it tell them to check it out on their podcast app or at investorhour.com please and also do me a favor subscribe to the show on iTunes, Google Play or wherever you listen to podcasts and while you're there help us grow with a rate and a review. Follow us on Facebook and Instagram, our handle is @investorhour. On Twitter our handle is @investor_hour.

                                    Have a guest you want us to interview? Drop us a note at [email protected] or call our listener feedback line 800-381-2357. Tell us what's on your mind and hear your voice on the show.

                                    For my co-host, Corey McLaughlin, and until next week, I'm Dan Ferris. Thanks for listening.

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