Episode Archive

Some familiar names are making big moves this week, as Dan discusses Microsoft’s latest plunge into AI, Alibaba’s declaration of intent to become the go-to online marketplace for U.S. B2B activity, and even shares the best – and free – source to get the sharpest analysis on Tesla he’s ever seen. Dan then gets to this week’s podcast guest, Michael Mauboussin, the Director of Research at Blue Mountain Capital Management.

In a week where markets hit new all-time highs, Dan gets to the question everyone asks with each new record. “You all know where I’m gonna come down on this.” With this high-water mark, it’s a good time to reflect on the principles of investing, from risk management, to value, to growth. Dan gets into the weeds on the literature of investor behavior – and the findings by DALBAR on individual investing performance, which while never changing year after year, are always shocking.

Dan’s long kept a close eye on mining companies for the big returns a select few of them can offer. Not for nothing is the little-known miner he’s publicly staked his reputation on up 132% and counting, for example. In fact, the top-performing Stansberry recommendation in our firm’s history, Seabridge Gold, returned 995% at one point. But the sector is fraught with risk. Between precious metal price fluctuations, geopolitical instability, and environmental challenges, there’s a lot that can go wrong.

We’ve covered mental models in previous episodes – the unique patterns of thought that open up opportunities – and reveal pitfalls – that the vast majority of more conventional minds don’t see, or even understand. Dan gets into a new mental model in this week’s episode, describing second-level thinking. “This one is very important for investors – it’s no coincidence that the first chapter of Howard Marx’s book is all about second-level thinking.”

What if we were in the midst of a gold rally, and no one was talking about it? Now that gold is up 7-8% over the last few months, Dan sheds light on why the uptick is so unreported, going largely unmentioned by mainstream media like The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times. Dan thinks the answer lies in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, and the dovish interpretation that prevailed. Clearly, the Fed is now thinking about supporting asset prices, now that their stated objectives of reaching full employment have already been met. Of course, that has some inevitable consequences. “If you screw with the market this long, the market says, “Uncle, Uncle!” And you gotta have some gold.”

In a week defined by Facebook’s announcement of its cryptocurrency Libra – which, with the company’s 2.5 billion users, may be the most powerful endorsement of cryptocurrencies to date – as well as sideshows like the deletion of Elon Musk’s always-dangerous Twitter handle, there’s a lot for Dan Ferris to unpack. Then there are the serious warning signs – including the aftermath of the Fed’s decision announced this week to hold off on raising interest rates. Dan reads the tea leaves to reveal what the Fed thinks chances of recession looming really are.

In this week’s episode, Extreme Value Editor Dan Ferris shares the two key concepts investors need to master to value a business, and why the most famous metric is, to him, totally meaningless. We also chat about Beyond Meat’s spectacular rise, and possible fall… and discuss a fear-mongering article from Bloomberg about the “fear gauge.” Fielder Capital Group CEO Frank Byrd stops by to share his fascinating story inspired by Warren Buffett.

Dan has long warned about the dangerous odds of short-term trading – yet in recognition of the fact that so many readers are still determined to do it, he offers some essential principles to anyone engaging in short-term trading – if they must. The important, No. 1 principle is counter-intuitive, and we expect some of you to argue – but hear Dan out about how the most important thing is not how much you make, or even if you make any money at all. And amid all the risk management tips out there, there’s one Dan reveals as the very best he’s ever heard – “the one that separates the heroes from the zeroes.”

Dan leads off with a shorter Rant segment this week, about how hard it is to do short-term trading because of all the big traders with billions of dollars that you’re competing against in the market. He says it’s as hard as trying to open an online retailer to compete against  Investors can profit from actively investing their own money, but they need to be more long-term oriented.  Dan also shares the “Coffee Can” story written by Robert Kirby back in 1984.  It’s all about how an investor followed his adviser’s buy recommendations, but not his sell advice… and wound up making a huge amount more money as a result of holding good companies for the long term.  In our What’s New segment this week, game software provider Zynga is selling its San Francisco headquarters and making $600 million—a ton more money than it’s made on its real business. Then Dan runs through a few “macro” bits in the news, suggesting that volatility is likely to increase over the next three years. Dan shares some personal research he did on the VIX, which he believes indicates that, the farther the VIX gets below 15, the more it resembles a “coiling spring,” set to soar. 

Dan opens up this week with an essential mental model all investors must master.  It’s a simple way to figure out where you’re most likely to succeed, in the stock market and in life.  Great financial minds like Warren Buffett, Andrew Carnegie and Ben Horowitz of Andreesen Horowitz have used this idea to achieve stunning success and enormous wealth.  In What’s New this week, you’ll see why the recently IPO’d Chinese company, Luckin Coffee, might not give Starbucks as much trouble as investors think.  We’ll also contemplate the recently reported “deaths” of both inflation and value investing.  We’ll finish up with a look at Whitney Tilson’s Tesla prediction… which is looking pretty good these days!

You’ve probably heard Warren Buffett say, “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”  You probably never stepped back and realized that’s a model of how emotions affect the stock market.  In this week’s opening “Rant” segment, Dan shares with you his model of the basic emotional makeup of the stock market. It’s different than the Buffett model. Dan pulls evidence in from some interesting sources he’s been looking at recently, from physicist/quant investor Emanuel Derman and mathematician/author Steven Strogatz. 

It seems like a distant memory with May’s headwinds for markets, but technically the “Everything Rally” is back this year, with 90% of 70 financial classes showing gains through this spring. Of course, the market action of this week, leading up to the S&P 500’s nearly 1% on Thursday morning, calls the entire rally into question. Luckily, there’s a kind of insurance available for investors against this kind of market movement – and it actually gets cheaper when it’s needed most, like property insurance premiums falling right before a Category 5 hurricane hits. In this episode, Dan explains how he used to double his money last week after a bet that May would be a horrible month for markets paid off.

The past 10 years have taught us that the FAANG stocks – with Nvidia sometimes included in the mix – can do no wrong. After all, they’re the businesses with the greatest technologies, low capital expenditures, and visionary leaders. They’re seemingly ascendant over the big brand names, as Kraft-Heinz’s 27% drop in one day appears to reinforce. But in this hundredth episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan explains why left-for-dead value investments could be about to have their day.

On a week where the S&P 500 hit an all-time closing high, Dan breaks down what it means for investors – continuing blue skies, or peak of a mania? Most of the time, he doesn’t care about the market’s valuations – except for two times. These special circumstances are rare. They come together less that 1% of the time. And as it happens, Dan has come across a major warning sign in today’s market valuations – something that comes on the heels of billionaire investor Ray Dalio’s recent report that corporate margins, which have propped up increasingly high market valuations, could come falling from right under them.

Extreme Value editor Dan Ferris chats about the “Amazon of Africa,” IPO, the death of retail, and Apple & Qualcomm’s fight. Former hedge fund manager and founder of Empire Financial Research, Whitney Tilson, stops by to explain why he thinks Tesla is the most dangerous stock in America.

Extreme Value Editor Dan Ferris discusses which company’s IPO is gathering steam and Bank of America getting out in front of a minimum wage fight. Our special guest Brian Dalton stops by to talk about how to collect income from gold.

Every now and then, someone asks Dan about the apparent contradiction between his value investing philosophy, and his appreciation for gold in investors’ portfolios. After all, when the world’s most legendary value investor, Warren Buffett, publicly disdains gold – does it really have a place in value investors’ strategies? Dan explains why Buffett is right in one way – and then gets to the two scenarios where holding gold will make a life-changing difference for investors.

In a week in which IPOs are in full bloom – and with them, a $37 billion trap Dan’s warning to avoid – there’s plenty to break down. From the unprofitable Uber paying $1 billion to buy out a (still more unprofitable) competitor, to the ongoing circus at Tesla, Dan crunches the numbers to explain what’s really going on, and how much longer the facades could sustain themselves. We have a particularly special guest for this episode – a new name at Stansberry you probably haven’t heard of yet.

Today’s rant by Dan Ferris is about you – you and your investments. Hardly anyone will tell you this, he says, but investing is personal – it’s an extension of who you are. And before you buy one stock, or bond, or share of a mutual fund, there are questions you need to know the answers of concerning… you. Most people shouldn’t want anything at all to do with the stock market, because of their own beliefs and preferences. And big banks and Wall Street don’t want you to know investing is so personal – they want you to think there’s a one-size fits all formula to it. It’s total B.S. – and as Dan will show you, you can no more outsource investing your capital than you can outsource someone to digest your food. Of course, people like Dan can point you to helpful insights and “news you can use.” We’ve got a bit of that this week, as Dan breaks down the news of Tesla’s $20,000 deposits on its new semi truck, Apple’s game-changing streaming service, and Lyft’s looming $2.1 billion IPO.

On the heels of the 10-year anniversary of the March 2009 stock market nadir, Dan sums up how things looked when the S&P 500 bottomed out at 666 at the dark days of that crisis, how things look a decade later, and why investors should keep a two-word phrase at the top of their minds: “Cycles matter.”